Jane Street has also been buying $MSTR aggressively. Everyone is reading this as bullish. It’s not.
This is convertible bond arbitrage; a structure that profits from the premium collapsing. The premium is how much more $MSTR trades above the value of the $BTC it holds. Saylor needs it to stay high because it’s what makes his convertible bonds attractive to issue Step 1 - buy MSTR’s low or zero coupon convertible bonds (free volatility, you get your principal back regardless) Step 2 - short MSTR stock to hedge. The SEC filing only shows the long equity leg, it doesn’t disclose the short. So what looks like accumulation is one side of a hedge where the other side is short $MSTR The mechanics make it worse for Saylor believers: arb funds buy stock when MSTR drops and sell when it rises, constantly suppressing the premium. They don’t care about Bitcoin price, they just profit from MSTR’s volatility Michael Saylor needs the premium to keep issuing debt and buying $BTC These funds are structurally capping the one thing his entire strategy depends on
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Jane Street has also been buying $MSTR aggressively. Everyone is reading this as bullish. It’s not.
This is convertible bond arbitrage; a structure that profits from the premium collapsing.
The premium is how much more $MSTR trades above the value of the $BTC it holds.
Saylor needs it to stay high because it’s what makes his convertible bonds attractive to issue
Step 1 - buy MSTR’s low or zero coupon convertible bonds (free volatility, you get your principal back regardless)
Step 2 - short MSTR stock to hedge.
The SEC filing only shows the long equity leg, it doesn’t disclose the short. So what looks like accumulation is one side of a hedge where the other side is short $MSTR
The mechanics make it worse for Saylor believers: arb funds buy stock when MSTR drops and sell when it rises, constantly suppressing the premium. They don’t care about Bitcoin price, they just profit from MSTR’s volatility
Michael Saylor needs the premium to keep issuing debt and buying $BTC
These funds are structurally capping the one thing his entire strategy depends on