Glassnode: Bitcoin enters the "excessive stop-loss" phase; if history repeats, it could dip to $44,000

Odaily Planet Daily reports that on-chain data firm Glassnode indicates Bitcoin is entering an “excess loss realization” phase. If historical trends continue, prices may remain under pressure in the coming months, with a potential downside target around $44,000. Data shows that on Monday, Bitcoin’s 90-day moving average “Realized Profit and Loss Ratio” fell below 1, indicating the market is in a state of overall loss selling. When this indicator drops below 1, it typically reflects panic selling, margin pressure, or a decline in macro risk appetite. Historically, when this indicator falls below 1, it is often accompanied by at least six months of sustained loss realization; when it rises back above 1, it usually signals a easing of selling pressure.

Past bear market experiences show that loss selling tends to accelerate in the middle of the cycle and is accompanied by further declines. During the 2022 bear market, this indicator fell below 1, and Bitcoin’s price declined by about 25% over the next six months. Similarly, in 2018, during a comparable phase, prices plummeted over 50% within five months. If history repeats, this correction could last about five months, marking a transition into a “full excess loss realization phase.” If the market continues to de-leverage and the pressure to realize losses is released, Bitcoin prices may remain under pressure in the coming months until a cyclical clearing is completed.