On Polymarket, the probability related to WTI crude oil touching $120 in April 2026 has recently risen sharply, and it is currently at 65%. The settlement rules for this prediction contract are: within the specified time, if the price reaches or exceeds $120, then it is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No".

Polymarket predictions show that a certain address invested $4,500 with a 77% win rate to purchase the "yes" option for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal, with the current probability at 25%. Iraq and Iran are negotiating tanker passage safety and considering resuming pipeline operations, with the UAE potentially participating in international action to secure the strait.

Nasdaq plans to launch a binary options contract that allows "yes or no" bets on major stock indices, becoming a new player in the prediction market. The contract's pricing will range from $0.01 to $1.00, reflecting market sentiment on the event outcome, and is currently awaiting SEC approval.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to CoinDesk, since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, there have been over a dozen Iran-related contracts on the prediction market Polymarket. The prediction market for the fall of Khamenei alone has attracted $45 million in trading volume. The trader account with the highest trading volume is named “Curseaaaaaaa,” who profited $757,000 by betting “Yes.” Four other traders also achieved six-figure gains.

PANews February 14 News, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Roundhill has submitted multiple ETF applications, aiming to gain exposure through swaps or direct holdings of political election "event contracts" (such as the "Democratic Presidential Contract," with party determination yes/no for the inauguration on January 20, 2027); if approved, it could open a new channel for the securitization of prediction market assets.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to The Poly Nerd monitoring, a new address (drop126) invested $99,954 to buy the "YES" option in the Polymarket prediction market for the "2026 California Election: One-Time Wealth Tax on Billionaires," with a purchase price of $0.45. If this prediction is correct, the address will receive $222,120, with a profit of $122,166.

On January 22, news broke that Trump suddenly withdrew his tariff plans against the EU and signaled a thaw regarding the Greenland issue, causing significant losses for a group of traders on Polymarket. Previously, bets on "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027" quickly reversed, with the probability of "Yes" dropping to about 11%, and a large amount of funds experiencing a noticeable withdrawal. This trend once again confirms the so-called "TACO trading" logic. The concept was introduced by Robert Armstrong in 2025 to describe Trump's usual strategy: first issuing extreme threats to trigger market panic, then retracting or softening the stance, thereby triggering a rebound in asset prices. The "D-Day" tariff shock in April 2025 is a typical example, and the operations around European tariffs and the Greenland issue in January 2026 repeated this pattern.

Gate News bot message, a newly created wallet spent $53,663 USDC to purchase "YES" shares on the question "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" on prediction market platform. If the prediction proves correct, the trader stands to receive $255,539. The wallet holder operates under the usernam

The sudden news of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest shook the global political arena, while the decentralized prediction market Polymarket released abnormal signals hours before the news was made public, sparking widespread discussions about whether "prediction markets are reflecting sensitive information in advance." According to blockchain data analysis, before the event was officially disclosed, the price of the "Maduro is ousted" Yes contracts on Polymarket rapidly surged. Three anonymous digital wallets placed large bets in advance on Maduro's removal and ultimately made a total profit of approximately $630,000. This trend was clearly at odds with the mainstream public opinion at the time, which held that "the probability of Maduro stepping down in the short term was extremely low."