VanEck Research Director: BTC derivative protective demand hits the 99th percentile historically, signaling a potential contrarian long setup

Gate News, April 4, Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, posted on the X platform analyzing that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile historically (in statistics, this is an extreme positioning concept; the 99th percentile means only 1% of historical data is above this level). It is usually seen as a “contrarian long signal” under extreme risk-avoidance sentiment, and he assessed that the market at this stage is suitable for establishing long positions. The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, has gained 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% over the same period—achieving a lower-volatility performance through diversified allocation and a focus on profit-generating segments. However, he also cautioned that if companies’ massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) space fail to generate corresponding returns, it could pose real pressure on the market, especially in a backdrop where the weight is concentrated in S&P 500 constituent stocks.