Gate News reported that on March 29, Garrett Jin, the agent of “Whale 1011,” posted on platform X stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation has clearly escalated. He summarized that this action brings three key impacts: first, the diplomatic buffer has been broken, as the previous low-key negotiations between Iran and Japan regarding the passage of vessels one by one are facing an end; second, the nature of the conflict has escalated, and if strikes extend to civilian infrastructure such as electricity, it will strengthen Iran’s position and increase the likelihood of a prolonged war; third, oil market volatility has soared, and market mismatches have intensified, with the crude oil volatility index OVX rising to 93, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index VIX is around 24, making the ratio between the two nearly 4 times, indicating that the risks in the oil market far exceed stock market pricing. Overall, oil prices and market volatility continue to rise, and the expected duration of the conflict is prolonged.
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