Tom Lee: The stock market has already digested 90% of the sell-off pressure; the initial stage of the U.S.-Iran conflict was already at the bottom

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said in an interview on CNBC on April 1 that the market has already priced in roughly 90% to 95% of selling pressure, and the sell-off process may be nearing its end. He noted that the market is currently in the early stages of rebuilding a base. Citing historical statistics covering every war since 1900, he said that the stock market often bottoms within the first 10% of the war’s progression.

A Century-Old Rule of Thumb: Tom Lee’s Evidence for a Wartime Bottom

Tom Lee’s core argument is based on historical statistics spanning more than a century. In his CNBC interview, he stated clearly: “We studied every war since 1900, and the stock market bottoms within the first 10% of the war’s progression. If this time also follows that pattern, we are now in the early stage of this process.”

The investment logic behind this argument is that uncertainty and panic-driven selling early in a war often create the biggest downward pressure. As the market gradually adapts to the new geopolitical realities, valuation troughs instead create an asymmetric opportunity to the upside. Tom Lee believes that market fear about the U.S.-Iran conflict is close to fully priced in, and that the fact that 90% to 95% of selling pressure has been digested means marginal selling pressure is running out.

He also said that the U.S. economy can withstand oil prices of $100 per barrel and even $120 per barrel. Even if the final bottom has not yet been confirmed, this macroeconomic resilience limits the room for further steep declines.

Diverging Perspectives: Three Analysts Disagree on the Timing of the Bottom

When judging the timing of the bottom in Bitcoin and the stock market, there is a clear split within the industry:

Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Crypto winter may end in April (February forecast). Earlier this month he said the crypto market may have already passed the winter and could continue to rise.

Willy Woo (on-chain analyst): Directly rejects Tom Lee’s timeline, calling it “unrealistic hope,” and predicts that the true cycle bottom won’t arrive until April 2027.

Benjamin Cowen (crypto analyst): Predicts that Bitcoin could soon fall below $60,000, likening it to the temporary $6,000 support that was eventually broken during the 2018–2019 bear market. He believes the four-year cycle looks intact, but that it is too early to declare that the bear market ended in 2026.

It is worth noting that Tom Lee is also the chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc., and BitMine is the public company that is currently still sustaining large-scale buying of Bitcoin despite paper losses on its books. Readers should take this conflict-of-interest context into account when assessing his predictions.

Positioning Mechanics: How Over-Neutralization Can Fuel a V-Shaped Rebound

Tom Lee also pointed out a key market-structure dynamic: currently, any negative news triggers de-risking behavior, showing that investors’ positions have been significantly reduced and that overall positioning has become neutral—if not conservative. It is precisely this over-de-risking that creates the technical conditions for a V-shaped rebound.

He said, “At some point, when people become overly neutral—even if things aren’t that bad—markets might see a round of V-shaped rebound.” This observation lines up closely with market sentiment data for the Fear and Greed Index, which is hovering in the extreme fear range (9). It is one of the core triggering logics for bullish proponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

How reliable is the “bottoming in the first 10% before the war” historical rule Tom Lee cites?

This conclusion comes from Fundstrat’s historical stock market data analysis covering more than a century since 1900, including multiple major armed conflicts. Cases ranging from World War II to the Vietnam War and the Gulf War support this pattern. However, the backgrounds, scale, and duration of each conflict differ, and the current composite environment—where oil-price shocks are layered with the pressure from Federal Reserve policy—means that simple historical analogies have certain limitations and cannot be taken as a certain prediction of future price action.

What specific basis do Willy Woo and Benjamin Cowen use for their bottom forecasts?

Willy Woo, based on his on-chain analytical model, believes the current Bitcoin cycle structure has not completed a full bear-market washout, and therefore sets the true bottom in April 2027. Benjamin Cowen, starting from technical analysis, argues that $60,000 is similar to the temporary support in 2018–2019 and carries the risk of being effectively broken through. Also, the completeness of the four-year cycle implies that restarting a bull market will require more time.

Does Tom Lee’s role as BitMine chairman affect the objectivity of his market predictions?

Tom Lee serves as both the founder of Fundstrat and the chairman of BitMine (a public company holding a large amount of Bitcoin), giving his bullish stance on the crypto market a certain conflict-of-interest context. This does not mean his analysis is definitely inaccurate, but readers should evaluate his predictions alongside views from analysts holding different interest positions in order to make a more comprehensive long/short judgment.