Peking University Professor Wan Zhe: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global oil supply gap of 15%-20%

Gate News reports that on March 29, Wan Zhe, a professor of economics at Beijing Normal University, shared his views on the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. Wan Zhe pointed out that the supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (one of the world’s most important oil transport routes) could account for 15% to 20% of global supply, with geopolitical uncertainty higher than during historical periods of localized warfare, and the risk of conflict spillover is still escalating. Regarding the trend of oil prices, Wan Zhe stated that if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Houthis continue to harass the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (a key waterway at the southern tip of the Red Sea) but do not fully block it, and there are no significant diplomatic breakthroughs, oil prices will stay above $100; if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, both major routes are interrupted simultaneously, and the conflict expands to more countries, oil prices will continue to rise; if a significant diplomatic breakthrough occurs and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, oil prices may quickly fall below $100. (CCTV)