Gate News reports that Flare Network co-founder Hugo Philion predicted last year that the value of XRP locked on its blockchain would reach $1 billion and mentioned it could potentially exceed $5 billion this summer. However, on-chain data shows that since the launch of the Flare XRP DeFi ecosystem six months ago, the average number of new daily users has only been around 76, with a median of 33, which is significantly below expectations.
Flare Bridged XRP (FXRP) is set to launch in September 2025, aiming to bring XRP into the DeFi ecosystem, but its actual performance has not met predictions. New users refer to wallets that interact with the FXRP ecosystem for the first time through actions such as minting, exchanging, burning, lending, or repaying. So far, on over half of the days, there have been fewer than 50 new users. Although there was a brief surge in the initial launch period due to the integration of the Xaman wallet or the release of FAssets, it quickly fell back, with an average daily increase of users below 60.
The network’s native token FLR has also shown weak performance. After a significant sell-off following its airdrop in January 2023, the price has dropped from the first day closing of $0.04 to $0.0079, a cumulative decline of over 80%, reaching an all-time low. The 4.28 billion FLR airdropped to XRP holders has been diluted to 85 billion over three years, yet it has not spurred ecosystem growth.
Currently, the circulating supply of FXRP is approximately 138 million, and the total size of bridged assets is only $190 million, with daily active users far below expectations, significantly missing Philion’s previously stated $1 billion locked asset target. Analysts point out that the growth of Flare XRP DeFi is stagnating, with new daily users even falling short of the dinner traffic at some restaurants, indicating that the ecosystem still faces significant challenges in user expansion and asset locking.