Bitcoin faces potential resistance between $75,000 and $85,000 if its current rally continues, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, even as derivatives markets show traders positioning aggressively long ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 interest rate decision.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, identified $75,000 as the first resistance level based on the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price lower band, which historically acts as resistance in bear markets, with the next hurdle near $85,000 corresponding to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price that previously capped rallies in January and October 2025.
Bitcoin traded near $74,500 on March 17, up approximately 1% over 24 hours, after briefly topping $76,000 overnight before pulling back amid caution ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement and February Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
Technical Resistance Levels
Key Price Hurdles
CryptoQuant’s analysis identifies two critical resistance zones if bitcoin continues its upward trajectory:
$75,000: Represents the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, a metric that has historically marked resistance during bear market conditions
$85,000: Corresponds to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price (violet line), which acted as resistance in mid-January when bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000, and again in October 2025
Historical Context
These levels have previously capped rallies, with the $85,000 zone specifically demonstrating its significance as a resistance point during two distinct periods in late 2025 and early 2026, according to CryptoQuant’s chart analysis.
Derivatives Market Sentiment
Shift to Bullish Positioning
Bitcoin traders have increasingly positioned on the long side in perpetual futures markets in recent days, signaling expectations of further short-term upside. Key indicators include:
Short liquidations: Short traders were liquidated as bitcoin moved above $70,000
New long positions: Fresh long positions opened above $73,000, indicating bullish traders now dominate
Funding rates: Turned from “extremely negative” until March 13 to “mostly positive” since March 15, showing traders are willing to pay premiums to maintain long positions
Taker buy/sell volume ratio: Remained above 1 for both bitcoin and ether, meaning buy orders are outpacing sell volume, with the ratio rising sharply since mid-March
Ethereum Parallels
Ethereum funding rates have also remained mostly positive since March 9, briefly turning negative on March 16, indicating similar bullish sentiment across major cryptocurrencies.
Potential Selling Pressure Signals
Exchange Inflows Surge
Despite bullish derivatives positioning, onchain data reveals potential headwinds:
Hourly inflows: Bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached 6,100 BTC on March 16, the highest level since February 20
Large deposits: Large transfers accounted for 63% of total inflows—the highest proportion since at least October 15, 2025
Selling pressure implication: Rising inflows to exchanges are typically associated with potential selling pressure as investors move assets to trading platforms
Fed Meeting Market Context
Rate Decision Expectations
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its two-day meeting on March 18, with markets universally expecting rates to remain unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, attention focuses on Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging and policymakers’ outlook for future rates amid rising oil prices driven by the Iran conflict.
Analyst Outlook
Bitfinex analysts outlined key scenarios for market reaction:
Hawkish outcome: A more hawkish tone combined with hot PPI inflation data “would be the most damaging combination for equities and risk assets” by strengthening the dollar
Oil price interpretation: If Powell signals the Fed is treating rising oil prices as a temporary shock, it could support sentiment and extend the crypto rally
Stagflation risk: A view that higher oil prices represent a more persistent inflation threat could limit the Fed’s policy flexibility and weigh on markets
PPI Data Timing
The February Producer Price Index (PPI) report is scheduled for release on March 18, ahead of the Fed’s afternoon announcement. While typically less market-moving than the Consumer Price Index, this PPI release will receive heightened attention given its timing immediately before the FOMC statement.
Rate Path Expectations Shift
Market Pricing Changes
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, noted significant shifts in market expectations:
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Probability of rates staying unchanged through the July meeting has jumped to over 60%, up from 22% last month
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Potential rate cuts have been pushed further into late 2026
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The higher-for-longer rate path reflects market reassessment of inflation risks and Fed policy trajectory
Short-Term Price Outlook
Immediate Trading Range
Bitfinex analysts expect price action to remain contained in the near term, stating that “the $74,000–$76,000 region to cap price momentarily” as markets await the Fed’s policy signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key resistance levels for bitcoin according to CryptoQuant?
CryptoQuant identifies two critical resistance zones if bitcoin continues its rally: $75,000, representing the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price that historically acts as resistance in bear markets, and $85,000, corresponding to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price that previously capped rallies in January and October 2025.
How are bitcoin traders positioned in derivatives markets?
Traders have turned increasingly bullish in perpetual futures markets, with funding rates turning positive since March 15, new long positions opening above $73,000, and the taker buy/sell volume ratio remaining above 1—indicating buy orders dominate. Short traders were liquidated as bitcoin moved above $70,000, reinforcing the bullish sentiment shift.
What potential risks could affect the current rally?
Rising prices have triggered large bitcoin inflows to exchanges, with hourly inflows reaching 6,100 BTC on March 16—the highest since February 20. Large deposits accounted for 63% of total inflows, the highest proportion since October 2025. Such spikes in exchange inflows are typically associated with potential selling pressure. Additionally, a hawkish Fed tone combined with hot PPI data could strengthen the dollar and weigh on risk assets.
