Gate News message: Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading sideways around $67,044 and is currently in a 4-hour descending parallel channel that has been in place since March 17. The channel has already seen two similar sell-offs, with declines of 11.49% and 9.72%, respectively. The third wave of selling started from the early-April peak, has retraced by about 5%, and technical signals suggest the pullback may continue. The RSI indicator shows a hidden bearish divergence, indicating weakening price momentum, while on-chain data shows short-term participants have not fully bottomed out yet, leaving room to absorb further losses.
The short-term holders net unrealized profit/loss (STH-NUPL) is currently -0.22, indicating that the average recent buyers are still sitting on unrealized losses of about 22%, though it has not reached the historical extreme levels from 2026—meaning downside pressure is still building. The UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) shows that around $65,636 there is the largest supply cluster, accounting for 2.62%, followed by $64,373. If the third wave of selling reaches these areas, concentrated holders may face a decision point, increasing the risk of further downside.
Key support levels include the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $65,750 and the 0.618 retracement at $64,920. If those levels break, price could test $62,232, consistent with the pullback sizes from the previous two waves. If Bitcoin price fails to hold the supply cluster support, a controlled pullback could turn into cluster-driven liquidation, pushing it further down to $57,883. Conversely, if price rebounds above $67,607, it would negate the bearish divergence; a breakout above $69,268 would signal that the descending-channel repeat pattern has been broken.
Traders need to closely watch the $65,636 supply cluster and the key Fibonacci support levels, as well as changes in STH-NUPL, which will determine Bitcoin’s next move. With short-term pressure and technical indicators pointing to the possibility that the third wave of selling may continue, investors should manage risk carefully.
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