Bitcoin may drop below $60,000: The breakeven period could extend to 2027, and the selling pressure from whales intensifies the downside risk.

BlockBeats news, on March 28, according to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below $60,000, the time for the market to recover to historical highs may be delayed until 2027.

Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025. According to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period is extended by an average of about 80 days. Currently, if $60,000 is a temporary bottom, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to dip to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the overall retracement will exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, delaying the timeline until after the second quarter of 2027.

On-chain metrics also indicate that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12–0.15), indicating there is still room for further downside.

In terms of capital flow, whale selling continues to intensify pressure. Data shows that large holders’ selling pressure has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including sustained high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further delay the pace of recovery in the crypto market.