Trump says Iran war is almost over, BTC needs to hold $70,000. What do technicals say?

U.S. President Trump publicly stated on March 10 that the Iran war is “almost over,” causing geopolitical risk sentiment to rapidly cool down. Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded over 4% from the war panic low of $63,000, once surpassing the $70,000 mark. ETH, SOL, XRP also rose 3% to 5% in tandem.
(Background: Trump called for Iran’s surrender with “bombing around until the target is achieved,” the Persian Gulf saw over 200 ships stranded, and the European Central Bank warned that dollar safe-haven status is failing.)
(Additional context: The first casualties of the US-Iran conflict—three U.S. military personnel—were reported. Trump admitted “casualties may reoccur,” causing BTC to fluctuate around $66,600.)

As of the latest quote, BTC is approximately $69,960, up over $1,400 in 24 hours, with market cap rebounding to about $1.33 trillion.

Market prediction platform Polymarket is pricing in the geopolitical risk: the probability that “the war will end before March 31” has surged from 11% to 44% in one day; the chance it ends by April 30 is 73%, and by June 30, 82%.

Risk assets are rising, with smaller altcoins HYPE, ZEC, and RENDER gaining 7% to 11%.

From $12.8 Billion Evaporated to a 4% Surge

Looking back at the start of this geopolitical shock, on February 28, the U.S. and allied forces launched airstrikes against Iran. The crypto market lost about $12.8 billion in market value within hours. BTC briefly dropped to $63,000, nearly a 10% decline. This was the most significant “war panic discount” recently, raising doubts about the dollar’s traditional safe-haven status, with the European Central Bank issuing rare warnings.

In the following two weeks, the market stabilized between $66,600 and $70,000, with the $66,600 low serving as a key reference point for bullish and bearish momentum. Trump’s March 10 statement significantly eased pressure within this range.

Technical Analysis: RSI Neutral, $74,000 is the Real Resistance

From a technical perspective, the current rebound is still a geopolitical discount correction, not the establishment of a new primary upward phase. The daily RSI stands at 47.25, in the neutral zone, neither overbought nor showing strong oversold rebound momentum. The 5-day moving average is at $69,959, slightly below the current price, while the 50-day moving average is at $67,931. Overall, short- to medium-term moving averages are leaning bullish but with moderate strength.

The key resistance is at $74,000. This level was a significant support before the outbreak of war at the end of February. Once broken, it becomes a resistance level. It remains a core target for bulls to reclaim.

If BTC can hold above $70,000 and break out with volume, the next test zone is around $74,000. Conversely, if Trump’s statement does not lead to substantial ceasefire progress, market sentiment could quickly reverse, with the $66,600 war low again serving as a defensive line for bulls.

Notably, Brent crude oil has fallen below $100 per barrel. Lower oil prices typically help reduce inflation expectations, indirectly supporting risk asset valuations.

Later today (Taipei time 21:30), the US February CPI data will be released, with an expected year-over-year increase of 2.5%. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it could provide additional momentum for this rebound; if inflation rebounds more than expected, it may dampen market expectations of Fed rate cuts.