Gate News Report, March 10 — Deutsche Bank Research Chief Jim Reid pointed out in a recent report that the current global energy market trend bears a “striking resemblance” to the macro trajectory before the second oil crisis in the 1970s. The report shows that both storms occurred 4-5 years after a surge in inflation, with Iran at the center of both crises. Jim Reid stated, “Whether history repeats itself depends entirely on how long this conflict lasts.”
Deutsche Bank also highlighted key differences between the two periods: in the late 1970s, inflation expectations spiraled out of control, and the second oil shock ignited a “wage-price spiral,” forcing central banks to adopt aggressive monetary tightening policies; whereas today, despite the inflation surge in 2022-23, long-term inflation expectations remain unusually stable.
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