Gold at $5,162 per ounce · Silver at $88... Spot prices continue to soar, while ETFs maintain a "wait-and-see" stance

International gold prices on the 26th (local time) traded near $5,162.90 per ounce, close to the previous trading day’s closing price of $5,165.03. Since the latter half of last week, after reaching $5,097.44 on the 20th and $5,227.61 on the 23rd, gold has been consolidating within the $5,100-$5,200 range for three consecutive days. Silver prices stood at $88.28 per ounce, slightly down from the previous close of $89.22, but after rising briefly from $76.63 on the 16th to the mid-$80s, it remains at a high level.

Looking at the past week, both gold and silver show a clear upward trend. Gold rose from $4,992.47 on the 16th to $5,165.03 on the 25th, while silver increased from the $76 range to the $89 range, with a larger gain. Traditionally, gold is viewed as a safe asset against inflation and financial instability, while silver, though a precious metal, has significant industrial demand in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields, making it sensitive to economic conditions, policies, and supply chain variables.

In the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which tracks gold prices, closed at $473.42 on the 25th, a slight decrease from $474.61 the previous day. After rising from $468.62 on the 20th to $481.28 on the 23rd, it now appears to be searching for direction in the mid-$470s. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed at $80.04 on the 25th, up slightly from $79.08, but after a rapid rise from $76.62 on the 20th to $80.57 on the 23rd, it has been fluctuating around $80. Market analysis suggests that ETF price movements reflect both short-term profit-taking and the demand for safe asset diversification.

On the macroeconomic front, central bank gold purchases and shifts in monetary policy tone are seen as background factors influencing gold prices. Some analysts note that in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, mainly led by emerging countries like China, Russia, and India, which are reducing their dollar reserves and increasing gold holdings. The case of Russia’s assets being frozen after the Ukraine war has prompted China, India, and Middle Eastern countries to increase gold holdings to reduce asset freeze risks. This trend is also considered a factor in price formation.

After the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75-4.00% in December 2025, expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 remain, which is seen as a factor supporting gold prices. Generally, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, in the US and other major economies, central banks maintain an easing stance, and countries like Russia and Iran are seeking to reduce reliance on the US dollar and explore alternative assets, including gold, to evade sanctions. The US tariffs and trade protectionism policies have heightened concerns over fractured global supply chains. Additionally, the designation of silver as a critical mineral in the US and China’s export licensing system for silver are seen as variables increasing uncertainty around silver supply and industrial demand.

The reactions in the spot and ETF markets also show divergence. Gold spot prices remain high above $5,000, while GLD has shown limited fluctuations around $470 over the past four days, indicating a standoff between new buying interest and profit-taking. Silver spot prices are experiencing short-term adjustments after forming a range around $80, while SLV repeatedly trades around the $80 level, reflecting liquidity conditions. The physical demand and central bank gold purchases support spot prices, while the ease of trading and short-term trading tendencies in ETFs show different responsiveness.

Overall, the gold and silver markets currently exhibit a mix of defensive and cautious sentiment at high price levels. Central bank gold buying, geopolitical conflicts, and asset freeze risks underpin safe-haven demand, while loose monetary policies, dollar fluctuations, and policy variables related to the Trump administration are also discussed. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially amid discussions of potential future chair Kevin Warsh and the dollar rebound, have heightened fears of a loss of Fed independence, which can boost safe assets like gold.

In the silver market, policies such as the US designation of critical minerals and China’s export licensing introduce supply chain risks and industrial demand uncertainties. Against the backdrop of expanding green investments in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, combined with tariffs, export controls, and sanctions, silver prices tend to be more volatile. Some analysts believe that gold mainly fluctuates based on central bank and institutional investor defensive demand, while silver is more sensitive to industrial activity and policy risks.

Both gold and silver are assets highly sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, monetary policies, and geopolitical variables such as war, sanctions, and trade conflicts. Recognizing this, markets generally expect that short-term price volatility may increase due to news, policy signals, and dollar strength or weakness.