[BTC Cycle Tracker] "$70,000 Still a Barrier"… Bitcoin rebounds to the $67,000 range, trend reversal not yet confirmed

Bitcoin rebounds to the $67,000 range but faces resistance at $70,000, unable to break free from the downtrend channel. The selling pressure above is heavy, making it likely that the price will continue to fluctuate within the current range in the short term.

As of 8:48 a.m. on February 26, Bitcoin’s trading price is $67,681, up 5.49% from the previous day. After a sharp decline, a technical rebound has occurred. Although it has moved away from the short-term lows, structurally it remains within the downward channel.

From the weekly heatmap, the most concentrated trading zone is between $69,000 and $71,000. Previously acting as support, this price range has now turned into a strong resistance zone. Recent rebound attempts have repeatedly been thwarted near $70,000, indicating that buy orders near the high have turned into “break-even sell orders.” Whenever the price approaches this zone, sell orders flood in, limiting upward momentum.

The trading concentration zone is gradually shifting downward. Previously centered around $69,000, current trading activity is concentrated between $66,000 and $68,000. This suggests that the average transaction cost among market participants is decreasing. Buy orders in the previous high zone are creating selling pressure at resistance levels, while new short-term buy orders are forming at lower price ranges. Selling pressure is redistributing downward.

Within the 24-hour short-term range, trading is focused between $66,500 and $68,000. The price has been oscillating within this box, repeatedly moving up and down. Although the short-term rebound continues, without significant volume increase, it’s difficult to break through the upper boundary. The $70,000 to $71,000 zone is reaffirmed as short-term resistance; without volume confirmation, the rebound may be suppressed again. Conversely, the $66,000 level acts as the first line of defense; if it is broken, a trading gap exists down to around $64,000, potentially accelerating the decline.

The most notable medium-term development is the failure of the $70,000 support to turn into resistance. Previously a key support level, it has now become a resistance zone, forming a typical downward channel with lower highs and lower lows. Under this trend, short-term rebounds should not be seen as trend reversals; it’s more conservative to interpret them as technical corrections.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently seeking balance along the lower boundary of the $66,000–$68,000 range. The heavy selling pressure above persists, and the trading concentration zone is gradually shifting downward. Until the price recovers and stabilizes above $70,000, a trend reversal cannot be confirmed. The current phase remains suitable for range-bound strategies and risk management.

Bitcoin Price Heatmap (Weekly Basis) / Bitcoin Counterflow

Compared to the high point, Bitcoin’s current trading price is $67,681, representing a -46.30% correction from the all-time high of $126,038 on October 6, 2025. The correction rate has slightly narrowed from the previous week’s -46.94%, indicating a modest easing of downward pressure from the high. However, the correction remains over 45%, suggesting that the sell-off phase is still ongoing in the medium term.

Post-Halving Trends Since the fourth halving on April 20, 2024, 678 days have passed. Bitcoin’s current price has increased about 6% from the halving day’s market price of $63,850. The gain is still in the single-digit range, and the strong bullish trend expected after halving has not yet materialized.

Historically, about six months after halving, the upward trend tends to strengthen, with repeated patterns of reaching a high point between 12 and 18 months. Currently in the late stage of the post-halving cycle, future liquidity improvements or spot ETF inflows could be key factors in trend reversal.

Low Point Changes Since the cycle low of $15,770 on November 21, 2022, 1,194 days have passed. Bitcoin has risen approximately 329% from that low. Despite ongoing correction from the high, the increase from the low remains well above 300%.

Based on past cycles, the expected end date for this rally is October 21, 2026, with about 237 days remaining. The cycle is estimated to be in the late 70% phase, and whether prices can recover in the coming months will be a critical factor in determining if the long-term uptrend continues.

[This article does not provide financial advice. Investment results are the responsibility of the investor.]