Bitcoin Faces Uncertainty in 2026 as Michael Terpin Warns of Possible Drop to $40,000

While many analysts believe Bitcoin’s capitulation phase ended near $60,000, not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, cautioned that the market may still face one final wave of selling pressure before a sustainable recovery begins. According to him, Bitcoin could retest the $40,000–$50,000 range before establishing a solid foundation for the next upward cycle.

The disagreement among analysts highlights the fragile state of the market. Some view $60,000 as a strong long-term floor, signaling that capitulation has already occurred. Others, including Terpin, argue that historical patterns suggest another “pain point” may be necessary to flush out remaining weak hands before a true recovery can take hold. This divergence leaves investors balancing optimism with caution.

Historical Halving Cycles Suggest Volatility Before Recovery

Bitcoin’s halving cycles have historically played a central role in shaping market momentum. In previous cycles following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin experienced significant rallies that peaked roughly a year after the supply reduction event. However, those rallies were not without turbulence. Each cycle included sharp corrections and final shakeouts before a sustained bull phase fully developed.

With the 2024 halving now behind the market, Terpin believes history could repeat itself. If previous patterns hold, Bitcoin may undergo another correction before entering a stronger long-term uptrend. The fourth quarter following a halving has historically marked a critical period, often bringing heightened volatility and decisive price action.

Macroeconomic Pressures Add to Market Risk

Beyond technical cycles, broader macroeconomic conditions are adding complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. Elevated interest rates and persistent inflation continue to pressure risk assets globally, including cryptocurrencies. In addition, recent market turbulence has triggered approximately $250 million in liquidations within 24 hours, underscoring how quickly leveraged positions can amplify downward momentum.

Although institutional adoption continues to grow and spot Bitcoin ETFs have strengthened the asset’s legitimacy, these factors alone may not shield the market from short-term corrections. Investors are therefore navigating an environment where long-term fundamentals remain constructive, but short-term risks remain elevated.

As 2026 unfolds, the debate remains open. Has Bitcoin already reached its cycle low near $60,000, or is another drop toward $40,000 still ahead? The answer may ultimately depend on how historical patterns, macroeconomic forces, and market sentiment converge in the months to come.