Standard Chartered tips Ethereum to outpace Bitcoin into 2030 cycle

Standard Chartered trims ETH’s 2026 target but says Ethereum will regain 2021 highs vs Bitcoin as throughput, DeFi and regulation drive a 2030 re-rating.
Summary

• Standard Chartered cuts Ethereum’s 2026 dollar target but keeps a higher 2030 goal, arguing ETH’s relative outlook vs BTC has improved.
• Analyst Geoff Kendrick sees 2026 as a key inflection as ETH benefits from higher L1 throughput, DeFi, stablecoins and tokenization demand.
• Weaker Bitcoin has dragged crypto’s dollar targets lower, but the bank expects ETH/BTC to trend back toward its 2021 peak as policy clarity improves.

Standard Chartered has established a new long-range target for Ethereum by the end of 2030 while reducing its end-2026 forecast, stating that Ethereum’s relative position is improving despite Bitcoin-led weakness affecting absolute cryptocurrency price targets.

Standard Chartered upgrades digital asset framework

In a research note, the bank’s digital assets analyst Geoff Kendrick identified 2026 as a potential inflection point for Ethereum (ETH) versus Bitcoin (BTC), despite revising down its medium-term projections.

“We think Ethereum’s prospects have improved. We therefore expect the cross to gradually return to its 2021 highs,” Kendrick stated in the note, referring to a rebound in the Ethereum/Bitcoin relationship as the central element of the analysis.

The bank now projects Ether to end 2026 at a lower level than previously forecast, before reaching progressively higher targets through the late 2020s and into 2030, according to the research note. Several medium-term dollar targets were reduced in the latest update.

Standard Chartered attributed the near-term reduction to Bitcoin’s impact on dollar-denominated cryptocurrency performance. Kendrick noted that weaker Bitcoin performance has “weighed on the outlook for digital assets priced in dollars,” requiring lower absolute targets through 2028 even as Ethereum’s relative fundamentals strengthen, according to the note.

The analyst identified several Ethereum-specific factors likely to manifest in relative performance rather than immediate spot-price gains. These include continued accumulation by Bitmine Immersion Technologies, described in the note as the largest Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury company, occurring while ETF inflows have “temporarily stalled” and broader corporate treasury buying has declined.

Kendrick also cited Ethereum’s role in stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and decentralized finance as structural demand drivers. The analyst emphasized plans to increase Ethereum layer-1 throughput by approximately 10 times over the next two to three years. “Analysis shows that higher throughput translates into higher market cap,” Kendrick stated in the research note.

Regulation was identified as an additional potential catalyst. Kendrick referenced the US CLARITY Act as a development that could support the sector, particularly Ethereum, if it facilitates another phase of decentralized finance activity. The US Senate is scheduled to review the bill on January 15 with possible passage in the first quarter, according to the note.

The framework suggests Standard Chartered’s primary focus centers on whether Ethereum can regain relative ground versus Bitcoin as throughput, stablecoin activity, and policy clarity develop into 2026 and beyond, rather than targeting a specific dollar level in the next 12 months.