Analyst warns: Bitcoin's technical outlook under pressure, is $69,000 a potential downside target?

Bitcoin is currently in a highly sensitive technical zone. Analysts point out that if the key support level of the current bear market triangle pattern is broken, Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant correction, with the price target potentially around $69,000.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently posted on X platform stating that Bitcoin must hold the lower boundary of the triangle pattern, or it risks a bearish continuation. From a technical analysis perspective, triangle patterns typically appear after strong trends, with prices consolidating in the short term and ultimately continuing in the original trend direction. In a bear market triangle, this continuation often points downward.

From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin previously rebounded above $94,000 and tested the upper resistance of the triangle pattern but failed to break through effectively, then retreated again. This movement is viewed as a typical “rebound failure” at the technical level, intensifying the short-term bearish outlook.

Overall, the key support level currently watched by the market is around $87,200. If this level is effectively broken, it indicates a downward breakout of the triangle pattern. According to technical calculations, the typical decline after a breakout is usually proportional to the length of the “flagpole” prior to the pattern, suggesting a potential downside target for Bitcoin in the range of approximately $69,000 to $69,300.

From an on-chain data perspective, Bitcoin is also approaching a critical cost indicator—the Active Realized Price. According to Glassnode data, this indicator is currently around $87,700, representing the average cost basis of active market participants. If the price falls below this level, some short- to medium-term funds may shift from unrealized gains to unrealized losses, thereby increasing selling pressure.

Overall, Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture indicated by both technical analysis and on-chain data. If the $87,200 level can hold steady, BTC still has the chance to regain momentum; but if it breaks down, market sentiment could quickly weaken, triggering a deeper correction. At this stage, risk management and key price level monitoring are particularly important.