Lighter LIT stabilized at $2.7 after launch. Is the airdrop sell-off nearing its end?

Lighter (LIT), as a newly launched decentralized perpetual contract exchange token, experienced a typical “sell the news” pattern immediately after its first listing driven by an airdrop. The price initially declined but has now stabilized around $2.73, performing better than the market’s general expectations for new tokens. Despite continuous inflows of new circulating supply, LIT remains above its post-listing lows, indicating some short-term support.

From a capital flow perspective, some indicators show early bullish signals. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) exhibited a clear bullish divergence from December 30 to 31: while the price was declining, the 15-minute CMF continued to rise, suggesting large funds are absorbing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) moved higher in tandem, with only a slight price retracement, reflecting noticeable dip-buying activity during this phase post-airdrop. This dual divergence of CMF and MFI typically appears during a stage where short-term selling is gradually being absorbed.

On-chain data also provides some corroboration. Several large wallets have been steadily accumulating LIT since its listing, consistent with the improvement in capital flow indicators. This suggests that current selling is more structural distribution rather than panic capitulation. However, if the CMF later falls below the equilibrium zone and the MFI weakens due to overheating, the supporting logic will be significantly undermined.

From a technical perspective, the bulls are still defending key levels in the short term. On the 15-minute chart, LIT’s price has repeatedly found support after testing the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) around $2.62, indicating that the intraday trend remains buyer-dominated. However, on the 1-hour timeframe, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has not yet broken above the downtrend line, suggesting overall volume is insufficient and upward momentum needs further confirmation.

Currently, LIT is trading within the decision zone of $2.48 to $2.77. If the price can effectively hold above $3.08 and OBV volume breaks out, the next potential target zone could be $3.25 to $3.72. Conversely, if the 1-hour closing price falls below $2.48 and the capital indicators weaken simultaneously, there is a risk of retesting $2.38 or even $2.07.

Overall, the short-term strength of Lighter LIT is more driven by capital support and technical levels rather than confirmed trend breakthroughs. Buyers have entered the market, but whether they can truly lead a new rally post-listing remains to be further validated by volume and structural signals.