- CoinEx analyst predicts no traditional altseason in 2026, with liquidity flowing only to established blue-chip cryptocurrencies with real adoption.
- Bitcoin is projected to reach $180,000 by 2026 despite a weakened correlation with M2 money supply following ETF launches last year.
In 2026, the cryptocurrency market can experience a paradigm shift, as liquidity will be concentrated in proven digital assets, and it will not be distributed throughout the wider altcoin market. According to industry analysts, investors ought to be cautious about the classic altseason rally that has defined past bull markets.
Major Cryptocurrencies to Capture Most Capital Flows
The chief analyst of CoinEx Research, Jeff Ko, cautions that retail investors who may expect to make extensive gains in all digital assets will probably be disappointed next year. The analyst anticipates that capital will only be directed to established cryptocurrencies with real adoption data and market shares, and leave the speculative tokens.
Ko expects average liquidity gains in the world in 2026, but the divergence in central bank policy can restrain the total market growth. He observes that Bitcoin is less associated with the growth of money supply in M2, after the introduction of exchange-traded funds last year, which indicates that new forces are redefining the price movements.
Although the perspective is selective, Ko estimates that in the event of the baseline conditions, Bitcoin would have hit $180,000 by 2026, which is a huge increase compared to the current prices of about $88,000.
Nevertheless, long-time futures trader Peter Brandt has a different long-term view, saying that Bitcoin will not hit its peak until September 2029. In his investigation of the 15-year history of Bitcoin, he recognizes five parabolic advances and corrections of over 80%, indicating that the current cycle is not finished yet.
The timeline of Bitcoin is in line with the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin, with the next one expected to happen in April 2028. A drop to 80% of the past trends would have the potential of pushing the prices to $25,000 before the next big surge.
The market environment is favourable to a reset story, as Bitcoin is down more than 22% in the first quarter, the second-poorest fourth quarter performance in its history. According to the Milk Road investing platform, this flush of weak positions would help to build more solid grounds in 2026.
Bitcoin has fallen by 30% of the October peak, indicating a wider uncertainty in the market. Although fourth-quarter strength is usually a positive indicator of Bitcoin, the recent decline can be an indication of changing market trends that need investors to reconsider the conventional cycle trends.
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