Amid rising overall market risk-off sentiment, the fundamentals of Layer 1 public chains are also under pressure, with Solana (SOL) becoming one of the most closely watched cases. From a price performance perspective, SOL has declined about 37% this quarter, marking its largest quarterly drop since Q2 2022, and becoming one of the worst-performing mainstream cryptocurrencies during the same period, with market confidence and FOMO sentiment continuing to cool.
On-chain data further reinforces the characteristics of a “surrender phase.” SOL has fallen over 50% from its $250 high, and short-term holders’ realized losses have significantly increased. STH NUPL has rapidly declined, indicating a large volume of chips changing hands in the loss zone. Meanwhile, LTH NUPL for long-term holders has fallen back to levels seen in April this year, when SOL experienced about a 30% decline. This suggests that even long-term capital is gradually losing patience.
What is more concerning is that the bear market pressure is beginning to impact Solana’s network fundamentals. Over the past two years, the number of validator nodes on Solana has dropped approximately 68%, leaving only about 800 nodes currently. This change has sparked widespread concerns about the network’s decentralization and security.
The core issue lies in the sharply rising staking costs. As SOL’s price weakens, the amount of tokens validators need to stake has passively increased. Currently, maintaining each node requires a value of about $17 million, nearly three times what it was before. In a declining price and yield-pressure environment, this threshold imposes a significant burden on small and medium validators, forcing some to exit.
This makes Solana’s correction no longer just a “healthy market adjustment.” Although the ecosystem continues to push long-term strategies such as ETF narratives, Firedancer upgrades, institutional adoption, and multi-chain expansion, the real-world loss of validators is directly challenging the network’s accessibility and resilience.
If this trend persists, Solana will face not only critical support tests but also potential impacts on the long-term resilience of its ecosystem. For investors, the current stage of risk is no longer limited to price volatility but extends to the fundamental stability of the network structure itself.
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