Analyst: If Bitcoin fails to return to the range of $88,000 to $90,000, it may fall to $78,000.

BRN Research Director Timothy Misir stated that the big dump in the crypto market on Friday pushed the Fear and Greed Index to 11, indicating “extreme fear” in the market. Misir pointed out that as the market capitalization of the entire crypto assets fell to its lowest point since the second quarter of 2025, liquidity “has almost completely disappeared.”

After Bitcoin fell below the average number of active investors, the market focus shifted to the true market average of $81,900 — a long-term cost basis accumulation point that he describes as “the next important threshold before full confirmation of the bear market.”

Misir wrote: “Bitcoin is now in the surrender zone, market trading is forced liquidation rather than rational operation. Holders are selling off in large quantities, which historically usually signals a strong rebound, but the timing of the rebound depends on whether institutional funds will flow back in. Until then, defense remains the only rational strategy.”

Data on U.S. employment released earlier this week showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 new jobs, alleviating concerns about an economic recession, but also complicating expectations for interest rate cuts in December.

Kevin Hassett, the White House-nominated candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman, made new remarks that further intensified market fluctuations. According to reports, Hassett stated that the timing for pausing interest rate cuts is “extremely poor,” citing cooling inflation and the government shutdown as factors hindering economic growth.

Japan's $135 billion stimulus plan has provided some support for global markets, but it is not enough to offset the ongoing deleveraging wave in the crypto assets sector.

“The macroeconomic situation is good, but the trading of crypto assets is almost entirely dependent on internal capital flows and liquidation pressure,” Misir said.

On-chain data shows that short-term holders are experiencing “cyclical extremes” of losses. BRN points out that these realized loss peaks are similar to those during the most severe adjustments in mid-2021 and 2024.

“Either we are about to face the final collapse, after which the market will see a strong rebound; or this is the moment of the complete collapse of the bull market,” Misir said. He noted that if the price fails to reclaim the range of $88,000 to $90,000, it “will open a direct path for a fall to” the high liquidity area around $78,000 to $82,000. (The Block)