On August 4, 2025, the price of Tron (TRX) has firmly maintained above the key support range of $0.32 - $0.33, with the weekly chart showing three consecutive weeks of gains. In a market environment where Bitcoin’s dominance is weakening, TRX is attracting an increasing amount of capital inflow due to its unique high throughput capability and stablecoin ecosystem advantages. Analysts have observed that a technical breakthrough that could potentially drive the price up by 40% in the short term is forming.
Current Price Trends and Bullish Technical Patterns
According to Gate market data, as of August 4th, TRX trading is around 0.33 USD, with a 22% increase over the past 30 days, significantly outperforming Bitcoin (which has decreased by 3.5% during the same period) and most Layer 1 public chain tokens. This strong performance is based on two major technical pattern breakthroughs:
- Cup and Handle Pattern Confirmation: The cup and handle pattern that has been forming since early 2025 broke out in July. This pattern often indicates trend continuation in traditional technical analysis, with a theoretical target around $0.38, representing a potential increase of 30%.
- Expanded Wedge Pattern: The daily chart shows that TRX has broken through the upper boundary of the ascending channel. If it holds the support level of 0.32 USD, it is expected to open up greater upward space.
- Trading volume support: The trading volume in July has consistently been above the 20-day moving average, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has stabilized above +0.05, indicating that funds are continuously flowing into the TRX market.
Three Fundamental Drivers of Bullish Momentum
Network adoption and ecological expansion
- Transaction Performance King: The TRON network processes up to 218,000 transactions per second (TPR), surpassing the total of Ethereum, Bitcoin, and TON, establishing its position as the preferred underlying platform for stablecoin transfers and high-frequency DeFi interactions.
- Stablecoin Dominance: Over 50% of USDT supply through TRON Network circulation, low transaction fees (less than 0.001 USD) and instant settlement capabilities have driven daily active users to exceed 2.8 million.
- dApp ecosystem thriving: The platform has hosted over 1,900 dApps, with significant growth in DeFi and entertainment applications. The Asia-Pacific region contributes 60% of the 6.5 million new wallet addresses added each month.
Institutional Entry and Strategic Buybacks
- $1 billion buyback plan: The TRON Foundation announced at the end of July the launch of a $1 billion TRX buyback (involving 3.1 billion tokens), a move that directly strengthens the price support in the range of $0.32 - $0.35.
- Node operators upgrade: Well-known institutions such as Kiln and Kraken become super representative nodes, significantly enhancing the credibility of network institutions and the attractiveness of staking.
Market Rotation and Correlation Opportunities
- Shanzhai season capital inflow: Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped from a high of 61%, with funds accelerating towards practical mainstream altcoins, with ETH, XRP, and TRX being listed as the top choices by analysts for August.
- Strongly correlated Ethereum: TRX and ETH price The correlation is as high as 0.94, far exceeding its 0.74 with Bitcoin. Against the backdrop of ETH strengthening due to the influx of funds from the spot ETF, TRX is expected to break through.
Technical Indicators and Key Price Levels
According to the latest market analysis, the short-term trend of TRX depends on two key positions:
- Support: $0.32 forms multi-level resonance support, coinciding with the 50-period moving average and demand zone. Maintaining this level will uphold the bullish structure.
- Resistance: $0.35 is a strong resistance level in the near term. A breakout will trigger short covering and trend-following capital, targeting $0.38 (cup-and-handle pattern target) and the annual high of $0.46.
The four-hour chart shows that although the Money Flow Index (MFI) has leveled off in the short term, the price remains stable above the 50-period moving average, indicating limited pullback pressure. If buying increases over the weekend, it could catalyze a new round of gains.
Risk Warning and Long-term Outlook
Short-term challenges cannot be ignored
- Concerns Over Declining TVL: Despite a strengthening price, the total locked value (TVL) on the TRON network has dropped from $6.51 billion to $4.91 billion, with a capital outflow of $1.5 billion from lending protocols, reflecting fluctuations in confidence among some DeFi users.
- Regulatory Sensitivity: As the core network for the circulation of global stablecoins, TRX is highly sensitive to changes in cross-border payment regulatory policies, and sudden negative news can easily trigger volatility.
Long-term Forecast Levels
Based on the technical model and ecological progress, analysts provide the following prediction framework for TRX:
| Time range | Target price range | Core driving conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 0.38 – 0.50 dollars | Mainnet upgrade completed, $1B buyback support, broke through the technical resistance of $0.35 |
| 2026 | 0.60 – 0.75 dollars | Cross-chain protocols mature, enterprise-level dApps scale up. |
| 2030 | 1.50 – 2.80 USD | The penetration rate of global payment networks is increasing, and the status of stablecoin standards is being solidified. |
It should be noted that achieving the target of 1 US dollar within 2025 is still quite difficult. Institutions like CoinDCX believe it will need to wait until after 2026 to be realized under ideal macro conditions.
Conclusion: Upcoming Breakthrough Opportunities
The triple resonance of technical patterns, on-chain fundamentals, and capital flow has made TRX exhibit a high risk-reward ratio in the range of 0.32 – 0.33 USD. If it successfully breaks through the resistance at 0.35 USD, it will confirm an upward structure, with a short-term target of 0.38 USD (+15%), and in the medium term, it is expected to challenge the annual high of 0.46 USD (+40%).
Investors should closely monitor two key signals:
- Ethereum ETF fund flows: If ETH continues its strong momentum, TRX is expected to benefit from a high correlation of 0.94;
- Defensive strength at $0.32: Falling below this support will undermine the short-term bullish structure, and caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback.
In August, when Bitcoin’s dominance weakened, TRX, supported by its real use cases and technical structure breakthroughs, has become one of the core assets for hedging market volatility and capturing altcoin season opportunities.
