When the XRP price surged 30% from its early February lows, market sentiment soared. Yet, on-chain data painted a very different picture: over 90% of short-term holders sold their positions during the rebound.
A key on-chain metric—SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)—remained below 1 for more than ten days, indicating that most transactions were still taking place at a loss, even as prices recovered.
More notably, the share of XRP held by mid-term investors (those holding for 1 to 3 months) dropped from about 14.48% in mid-January to 9.48% recently—a decline of roughly 35%.
Market Performance
According to Gate market data, as of February 10, 2026, XRP was priced at $1.42. Over the past 24 hours, the price edged up by +0.85%, with trading volume reaching $144.97M.
Despite this, XRP still faces significant short-term pressure. The current price is approaching a strong resistance zone between $1.44 and $1.54.
Looking at a broader timeframe, XRP remains in a wide consolidation range. Compared to last year, the price is down -40.78%, and it has fallen -32.20% from one month ago.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1.42 |
| 24h Change | +0.85% |
| 24h Volume | $144.97M |
| 7-day Change | -12.24% |
| 30-day Change | -32.20% |
| Key Resistance Zone | $1.44 - $1.54 |
On-Chain Data Insights
To understand the real story behind the price rebound, you have to look beyond the charts and dive into the blockchain itself. A range of on-chain indicators point to one conclusion: the recent rally has been used by holders as an exit opportunity, rather than the start of a new upward trend.
The most direct signal comes from the Spent Output Profit Ratio. This metric has stayed below 1, meaning most tokens moving on-chain are being sold at a loss. This reveals an unusual pattern: typically, after a significant rebound, short-term traders are in profit, which pushes SOPR higher. In XRP’s case, profit-taking hasn’t materialized—loss-cutting sales continued even as prices recovered. This suggests many holders are still eager to exit underwater positions.
SOPR Under 1: Glassnode
Changes in holder composition make it clearer who’s selling. The most dramatic shift occurred among the 24-hour holder group.
On February 6, this group controlled about 1% of XRP’s circulating supply, but within days, their share plummeted to 0.09%—a drop of over 90%. These are highly sensitive traders who enter during market volatility and exit quickly during rebounds. The selling isn’t limited to them. Mid-term holders (1–3 months), who bought heavily when XRP neared $2.07 in January, have also been steadily reducing their positions.
Did speculators buy the top?: Glassnode
Mid-term XRP holders selling: Glassnode
Technical Structure and Key Price Levels
From a technical analysis perspective, XRP’s chart shows a potential rebound pattern alongside strong resistance. On the 12-hour chart, XRP is trading within a "falling wedge" formation. If it can decisively break above the upper trendline, there could be more than 50% upside potential.
Another early bullish signal is a divergence in momentum indicators. Between late January and early February, XRP’s price made lower lows, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—which measures buying and selling pressure—formed higher lows.
However, all this technical bullishness faces a real obstacle: a massive cost basis resistance. Cost basis heatmaps show that between $1.42 and $1.44, more than 660 million XRP have accumulated, creating a strong supply (sell) zone.
Long-Term Fundamentals and Price Forecast
Despite weak short-term sentiment and on-chain behavior, XRP’s long-term fundamentals are strengthening. This is mainly due to an improved regulatory environment and broader institutional adoption.
A milestone event was the resolution of the prolonged legal dispute between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This settlement removed the biggest regulatory cloud hanging over XRP for years. Regulatory clarity has opened the door to wider institutional adoption. In November 2025, the US market approved several XRP spot ETFs, including products from global asset management giants like Franklin Templeton.
On the enterprise side, Ripple has ambitious goals. CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted that the XRP blockchain could capture 14% of the global cross-border payments currently handled by the SWIFT system within five years.
Even partial realization of this vision would mean trillions of dollars in payment flows, potentially driving huge demand for XRP.
Considering technicals, on-chain data, regulatory progress, and institutional adoption, market expectations for XRP’s trajectory in 2026 and beyond vary. Based on Gate’s forecast data, XRP’s average price could reach $2.06 by 2031—about +45% higher than current levels.
The table below summarizes annual price predictions from 2026 to 2031:
| Forecast Year | Lowest Price | Highest Price | Average Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.9405 | $1.48 | $1.42 |
| 2027 | $1.06 | $1.94 | $1.45 |
| 2028 | $1.44 | $1.87 | $1.7 |
| 2029 | $0.9285 | $1.94 | $1.78 |
| 2030 | $1.06 | $2.25 | $1.86 |
| 2031 | $1.36 | $2.47 | $2.06 |
Between $1.42 and $1.44, a "cost wall" of more than 660 million XRP stands firm. Each time the price touches this zone, it triggers a new wave of selling.
Key sell zone: Glassnode
Outlook
In the short term, the divergence between market sentiment and on-chain data is the main tension for XRP’s price. Optimistic technical patterns are battling weak holder confidence.
The $1.44–$1.54 range is the critical threshold for determining short-term direction. A breakout accompanied by rising volume and a strengthening SOPR could reverse recent weakness and kick off a more sustained rally. If, instead, the price stalls and falls again at this level, XRP may retest $1.23 or even recent lows near $1.12.
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView
From a long-term perspective, XRP’s narrative is shifting from "legal survival" to "institutional integration." Clearing regulatory hurdles and launching compliant financial products like ETFs have built a foundation unlike any in the past. However, realizing long-term potential will take time and depends closely on Ripple’s progress in real-world adoption. For investors, staying patient amid volatility and closely monitoring on-chain supply-demand dynamics and key technical breakthroughs may be the rational approach to today’s complex landscape.
Crypto markets are always changing, but one principle remains: prices fluctuate, yet real value ultimately comes from solving real-world problems.
