Bernstein Backs Coinbase 'Everything Exchange' Strategy, Sets $330 Target

Bernstein analysts maintained an outperform rating on Coinbase (COIN) on Friday and set a $330 price target, implying 71% upside potential from Thursday’s closing price of $192.96, according to the research firm’s note to clients. The rating follows Coinbase’s first-quarter earnings report, which showed weaker-than-expected results but signs that the company’s diversification strategy is gaining traction.

Q1 Financial Performance

Coinbase reported first-quarter revenue of $1.41 billion, missing estimates by 5%, while adjusted EBITDA of $303 million fell 26% short of expectations. The company posted a net loss of $394.1 million, reflecting $482 million in unrealized losses tied to its crypto investment portfolio. Bernstein attributed the weaker results to market headwinds, noting that total crypto market capitalization and industry trading volumes both declined more than 20% from the prior quarter.

Coinbase’s total spot trading volume dropped 25% quarter-over-quarter to $202 billion. Retail trading volume fell 36% to $36 billion, and monthly transacting users declined 10% to 8.2 million. Despite these declines, Bernstein noted that Coinbase reached an all-time high in crypto trading market share, supported by gains in both spot and derivatives trading.

Diversification Driving Growth

Bernstein highlighted expanding contributions from businesses beyond spot trading as key catalysts for upside. Retail derivatives are now annualizing more than $200 million in revenue, while institutional derivatives tied to the company’s Deribit acquisition are annualizing above $250 million. Prediction markets surpassed a $100 million annualized revenue run rate in March and became one of the fastest-growing products in Coinbase’s history, according to the analysts.

The firm also emphasized Coinbase’s stablecoin and payments infrastructure strategy around USDC and Base. Base-based stablecoin transaction volume grew tenfold year-over-year, while more than 90% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume during the quarter occurred on the Ethereum Layer 2 network. Bernstein described Coinbase’s approach as a vertically integrated stack built around USDC, Base, payments APIs, and the x402 protocol for agentic commerce.

Potential Catalysts Ahead

Bernstein argued the market may be underestimating potential catalysts for Coinbase and the broader crypto sector, pointing to expected progress on the Clarity Act and recent comments from White House crypto officials regarding a more formal announcement tied to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Trading Disruption

Earlier on Friday, Coinbase resumed trading after suspending order matching and moving markets into “Cancel Only” and auction modes for several hours during an AWS-related disruption. COIN was down 2.7% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Gautam Chhugani, the lead analyst, maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in Coinbase equity securities.