「2 大」利多支撐!摩根大通看好「加密貨幣今年迎復甦行情」

儘管比特幣近期跌勢兇猛,華爾街投行摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)仍對後市抱持相對樂觀的看法,認為在機構資金歸隊、監管環境明朗化的雙重利多支撐下,加密貨幣市場今年有望迎來強勁的復甦行情。 由 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 領軍的分析團隊周一發布報告指出:

我們對 2026 年的加密貨幣市場持樂觀態度,預期數位資產資金流入將持續攀升,且主導力量將來自機構投資人。

這份樂觀預測,出現在市場情緒仍顯脆弱之際。比特幣近期跌破摩根大通估算的「生產成本」,亦即礦工挖礦的平均成本。過往經驗顯示,生產成本往往是比特幣價格的「軟性底部」,具有心理與結構性的支撐意義。 截至寫稿時,比特幣的交易價格為 67,656 美元,仍低於摩根大通最新估算的生產成本 77,000 美元。值得注意的是,這一成本估值已較前幾周明顯下修。 分析師指出,若比特幣價格長時間低於生產成本,將迫使部分礦工退出市場,算力下降後,整體挖礦難度與平均成本也將隨之下調。這種機制最終會形成自我修復的循環,使市場重新取得平衡。 近幾週加密市場劇烈震盪,比特幣一度跌破與礦工生產成本相關的損益平衡點,市場情緒明顯受挫,鏈上活動亦同步降溫。不過,摩根大通觀察到,儘管散戶參與度下降,機構興趣仍相對穩健。市場波動率雖維持高檔,但若資金輪動再度回流至加密貨幣,市場具備反彈條件。 報告亦提及資產間的相對表現,自去年 10 月以來,黃金表現大幅跑贏比特幣,但近期金價波動率急遽攀升,從長期資產配置的角度來看,相較於黃金,現在的比特幣顯得更具吸引力。 展望後市,摩根大通預測 2026 年數位資產資金流入將出現反彈,主要推動力來自機構投資者,而非散戶或囤幣公司。

免責聲明:本頁面資訊可能來自第三方,不代表 Gate 的觀點或意見。頁面顯示的內容僅供參考,不構成任何財務、投資或法律建議。Gate 對資訊的準確性、完整性不作保證,對因使用本資訊而產生的任何損失不承擔責任。虛擬資產投資屬高風險行為,價格波動劇烈,您可能損失全部投資本金。請充分了解相關風險,並根據自身財務狀況和風險承受能力謹慎決策。具體內容詳見聲明

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