比特幣急跌反彈未現期貨深度折價，衍生品訊號顯示尚未出現投降式拋售，市場可能仍需再經歷一次下探洗盤。
就在上周，比特幣上演了驚心動魄的「大怒神」行情，單日挫逾 10% 、險守 60,000 美元大關，隨後雖強勢反彈回 70,000 美元附近，但這波急殺是否已構成所謂的「投降式拋售？ 也就是投資人因恐慌而認賠殺出，讓賣壓徹底宣洩完畢，為下一輪牛市行情鋪路。
不過，從衍生性商品市場的角度來看，答案恐怕是否定的。根據 Amberdata 衍生品總監 Greg Magadini 的觀察，期貨市場所釋放的訊號顯示，比特幣恐怕還有進一步下跌的空間。
Greg Magadini 在周一的市場報告中指出，這次下跌期間，期貨基差（期貨與現貨之間的價差）的反應明顯偏冷，並未出現過往熊市常見的劇烈變化。他說：
期貨基差幾乎沒有出現該有的『市場反應』，讓我無法確信我們已經經歷了真正的投降時刻。
他所指的，正是期貨在空頭趨勢、尤其是市場出清階段，與現貨價格之間的典型關係變化。
期貨允許交易人在未來特定時間，以事先約定的價格買進或賣出標的資產，例如比特幣。投資人可透過期貨押注價格走勢，看多時做多、預期下跌時放空，而無須實際持有比特幣本身。也因此，期貨與現貨之間的價差（基差），往往成為判讀市場情緒與部位方向的重要指標。
當期貨價格明顯高於現貨，代表市場偏多，投資人願意為未來價格上漲支付溢價；反之，當期貨價格跌破現貨、出現折價，則意味著空方賣壓沉重，市場悲觀。
回顧比特幣歷史，熊市往往在期貨與永續合約出現「大幅折價」時觸底。這種極端的逆價差代表市場信心徹底崩潰，持幣者恐慌性認賠殺出（也就是「投降」），標誌著熊市最後的洗盤階段完成。
然而，上周的劇烈波動中，期貨折價僅是曇花一現。
Greg Magadini 指出，儘管比特幣 90 天期貨基差隨著每一波下跌確實逐步走低，但波動幅度幾乎不超過 -100 個基點（bps），並未形成深度折價。目前比特幣的固定期貨基差仍維持在約 4% 左右，幾乎與無風險美債殖利率持平。
若將時間拉回 2022 年熊市尾聲，當時比特幣跌破 2 萬美元關卡，90 天期貨一度出現高達 9% 的折價，清楚反映出市場極度悲觀、槓桿部位全面撤退的狀態。
若歷史經驗可循，比特幣可能還需經歷一次下探，迫使期貨交易員徹底投降，將期貨價格推向深度折價，才算真正觸底。
- 本文經授權轉載自：《區塊客》
- 原文標題：《「真正的底部」還沒到？專家示警：比特幣恐迎「投降式拋售」最後一跌》
- 原文作者：區塊妹 MEL
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