美元轉弱，卻未能如往常般點燃比特幣漲勢，這樣的「反常走勢」引發市場關注。摩根大通私人銀行（J.P. Morgan Private Bank）認為，關鍵並不在於比特幣本身，而是這一波美元下跌的「性質」與過往大不相同。
衡量美元兌主要貨幣表現的美元指數（DXY），過去一年下滑約 10%；然而，向來被視為「弱勢美元受惠者」的比特幣，同期卻反而下跌 13% 。
摩根大通私人銀行亞洲宏觀策略主管 Yuxuan Tang 指出，近期美元走貶是由短期資金流動和市場情緒主導，而不是因為市場對美國經濟前景或貨幣政策預期出現變化。
他提到：「事實上，自年初以來，利差反而持續朝向有利於美元的方向發展。目前我們看到的美元拋售潮與去年 4 月類似，主要是由資金流動和市場情緒驅動。」
在此背景下，摩根大通認為，美元走弱的狀態最終可能只是「階段性現象」，隨著美國經濟動能在今年逐步回溫，美元有機會重新站穩。
也正因如此，比特幣這次並未表現出「美元避險資產」的典型特徵。相較之下，黃金在美元走弱期間持續走強，而比特幣價格卻持續在區間內震盪，這表明加密貨幣市場並不認為美元下跌會帶來長久的總體經濟轉變。
從市場表現來看，比特幣目前更像是對流動性極度敏感的風險資產，而非價值儲存工具。在貨幣政策預期未出現明確轉向之前，僅憑美元走弱，並不足以吸引新資金大舉流入加密貨幣市場。
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