As for whether there will be a "bull return" market in the second half of the year, there is no need to speculate too much. The possibility of interest rate cuts seems a bit far off at the moment, at least until May, when it is clear that there will be no cuts. With time stretching far apart, there could be changes; if inflation unexpectedly rises due to factors such as increased tariffs, rate cuts will be out of reach. In that case, it will be almost 100% confirmed that 110000 is the highest point of this round. Even if there are indeed two rate cuts as scheduled, it won't go up much higher, and it may not even exceed 100,000 or 110,000 again, because the low point in May-June is likely already between 60,000 and 70,000. As a rational trader, this is my view.