At 20:30 tonight, the February CPI data for the United States is about to be released, and this data will undoubtedly become the focus of attention in the financial market. All parties in the market are highly following this data, as it plays a crucial guiding role in the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. From the current market expectations, there is a possibility of inflation data slightly exceeding expectations. If this is the case, it will further postpone the timetable for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Even if the inflation data ultimately remains flat or lower than expected, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to postpone the interest rate cut measures until the second half of the year. According to the forecast of FOMC Interest Rate probability, the possibility of an interest rate cut in March has been completely ruled out. Currently, the market's expectation probability for an interest rate cut in May is 45%, while the probability for an interest rate cut in June is as high as 93%. This clearly indicates that the market has generally reached a consensus that the Federal Reserve will not take action easily in the short term, and the window for interest rate cuts is highly likely to be postponed until the middle of the year. If the CPI data released this week performs well and the funding-related issues can be successfully resolved on March 15th, the probability of an interest rate cut in May is expected to further increase. In the context of the recent significant decline in the stock market, market sentiment is currently low, and investors are eagerly awaiting a rebound in order to alleviate the pervasive pessimism in the market. Personally, if the CPI data can reach 2.9%, this would be a relatively ideal result and is highly likely to trigger a market rebound. After all, the market urgently needs a positive signal to rebuild confidence after experiencing a recent continuous decline. Sincerely hope that this data can bring some positive impact and inject new vitality into the market.

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Despite the continuous downward trend in the price of Bitcoin, it is worth noting that in the past 30 days, whale investors have accumulated over 65,000 bitcoins. Although this accumulation does not necessarily have a direct and immediate impact on the short-term price of Bitcoin, it fully demonstrates that influential participants in the market are starting to take action. However, it should be pointed out that compared to the over 1 million bitcoins sold by long-term holders near the high point of $100,000, the current accumulation of 65,000 bitcoins by whales is relatively small. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed the approval process for multiple spot ETFs. The SEC has delayed the approval of various spot ETFs including VanEck Spot Solana ETF, Canary Spot Litecoin ETF, Canary Spot Solana ETF, CANARY Spot XRP ETF, Grayscale Spot XRP ETF, and Grayscale Spot Dogecoin ETF. Taking into account the above situations, the current Rebound in the market is likely to be only a temporary rebound, with a relatively low possibility of a trend reversal. Subsequently, it is still necessary to closely follow the gradual improvement of market sentiment and the breakthrough in trading volume at key resistance levels.