The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!
The Xiongguan Road is really like iron, and now it is moving from the beginning!

On June 26, we raised the possibility of whether the wave Zc of the excessive cycle is over. (For details, please refer to the 6-26 Bitcoin forecast)

Taking Bitcoin as the base point from the 8th to the 17th, the period of 31800-28625 US dollars is assumed to be the driving wave structure of the departure period of the two centers.

The follow-up small-level ABC rebound trend is relatively regular.

As shown below:.

From a morphological point of view, I was more inclined to the driving wave at the time, but it is also feasible to interpret the adjustment wave as a triple zigzag as Zb. The trend is so ambiguous most of the time. It’s all about subjective judgment! That’s why I’m less inclined to be short. Although it is a certain short position!

Based on the trend since 30242 US dollars, it is feasible to assume that the wave A3 or Wc that has ended since 15XXX-318XX

Even here as Zbc since 15XXX I am not so against. (In the case of ZBC, the time of wave B is too long, the time of Wb is 16 days, and the time of Yb is 18 days, so the ZBC plan is personally not inclined, but it is in line with the theory)

In terms of time: It has been running for 234 days since the price of 15,000 US dollars. If the base point is 31,800 US dollars, the rebound ratio is 61.8%

In terms of space: since the rebound of 15,000 US dollars, it has rebounded by more than 26.8% and less than 38.2%, which meets the minimum rebound requirement.

Structurally: At the end of the triple zigzag Z wave, the driving wave can also be explained but it is not so reasonable (the only reasonable explanation is the triple zigzag)

The overall goal is still the same. The type of 312 519 below 15,000 will crash again, and only then can we hope to usher in a magnificent market, otherwise the bull market is unpredictable! It is not advisable to use history as a mirror.

Continuing the small structure, the possibility of Zc is greatly reduced, and what is left is to open positions at those positions and target positions such as A3WC and the deterministic left upside end point.

Based on AC isometric calculation, the one-to-one position is at 27045 and the 1.618 position is at 25068. That is to say, if AC is established, I think at least go to 27XXX-25XXX first.

Use the Fibonacci retracement ratio to determine the end and non-existent position of ZC. I take 70% under normal circumstances 61.8% 100%

The position is at 26705 US dollars.

From the point of view of pressure, our positions are in the short position of 28850-29350 US dollars, which is a pressure range. It is not a fixed point. Stop loss 30226

Or change the right shoulder position to 30400 US dollars and stop loss 31850. This requires the continuous evolution of the market.

In terms of logarithmic coordinates, it has fallen below the trend line connecting the low points of 19XXX-24XXX. The trend line of 15XXX has not fallen below $27,606, and the above position is a logarithmic coordinate.

I won’t go into too much detail about other indicator MACD divergences and so on.

The above is my personal opinion, for reference only and not as a basis for opening a position! (Axe correction is welcome)

If the account has no money, you can’t post pictures, and the meeting will be adjourned!