Bitcoin's recent surge was suspicious from the start—Bitcoin didn't move, only altcoins rose. This kind of divergence-driven rally is unstable, and when Bitcoin passively follows up later, it's just a false push that is destined to fall back. Sure enough, it came down.

In the market: it hit 2412 then turned around, not breaking the previous high; it broke below 2360 and the flag pattern, signaling a bearish trend. Now it first tests around 2300.

Let's see if 2300 can hold:

· If it can't hold, volume breaks below → target 2251
· If it can hold → a rebound must recover 2339-2360 to break the downtrend, then look at 2412
· If it remains stuck in 2300-2339 range with sideways movement, that's already the best outcome for the bulls

Trading strategy (with volume + stop-loss):

· If the hourly chart stabilizes above 2325, go long, targeting 2339-2360
· If it breaks below 2307 and rebounds are weak, go short directly, targeting 2283-2251