Bitcoin's rebound yesterday, I just didn't find it convincing. Why?

Initially, Bitcoin didn't rise, only altcoins were going up. Imagine you're out eating with your dad, and you start eating before he picks up his chopsticks, wouldn't he slap your mouth away? When Bitcoin doesn't rise but altcoins do, it's not a good sign — and what happened? It dropped! Later, Bitcoin rose, but it was just dragged up by altcoins; that was just a coordinated move, but you took it seriously.

The stronger the altcoin rebound, the sharper the decline. Although the rebound was quite fierce, looking at the yellow arrow above, it still didn't break the previous high, hitting resistance at 2412 and turning downward, breaking below 2360 and the flag pattern.

Now, it's testing the support around 2300 for the first time. Let's see if the isolated low point marked by the white arrow below can hold:

· Can't hold → 2300 gets broken easily → look for a stop at 2251
· Can hold → the rebound must return to the 2339-2360 resistance zone to prevent further decline. Only by returning to this range can there be a chance for a rebound near 2412; otherwise, maintaining a range between 2339-2300 is already quite a feat.

Trading signals:

· Break above 2325 with volume → go long on the right side, targeting 2339-2360
· Break below 2307 with volume → go short on the right side, targeting 2283-2251
· Watch for volume changes, set proper stop-losses

Key level on the 4-hour chart: the consolidation triangle must not be broken. Currently, it has broken below the Fibonacci 78.6% strong support; if it breaks the triangle again, it will test the 61.8% support. If both the 78.6% and 61.8% supports are broken, Bitcoin will be in trouble again. It’s possible to fake a triangle break and retest the 61.8% level, but it must hold. If it doesn’t, the 4-hour downtrend will begin.