Last night’s recap: The drop in the big cake to 77.5k isn’t the main point—the real focus is the change in capital structure.

This round of decline didn’t have any particularly major negative news. It was mainly that leverage got wiped out, followed by a chain liquidation. The long side was taken out in one go, and total market cap also pulled back—indicating that people aren’t bearish, but the incoming capital below isn’t stable enough. A fast drop doesn’t necessarily mean a transition to a bear market, but it’s certain that leverage is too crowded.

What’s interesting is that Strategy is still buying. Last week it bought more than 3,270 coins, with an average price of 77.9k. Institutional buying is indeed a good sign, but don’t think a pump is coming immediately. They’re looking at the long term; in the short term, you still need to watch two things: first, whether the funding rate has come down; second, whether spot can absorb the sell pressure.

Next, if the big cake can regain the key trading area, altcoins, as well as ETH and SOL, will have a chance to repair. If the rebound is only short covering with no volume, then it will continue to range and wash out leverage.

My take: Tonight, don’t rush to judge bull versus bear. First, observe the liquidity/flows. A genuinely healthy trend isn’t one that snaps back—it's one where volatility drops, volume keeps up, and leverage gets lighter. $BTC $ETH