$BTC Evening Viewpoints:

Why did Bitcoin surge nicely and then break down? Don't guess the market; do what you see. Just remember, whether the market goes up or down, it’s always right. This sudden plunge might be driven by bad news you and I can't see. Looking at the area indicated by the red arrow above, is a double top pattern forming? It’s likely because it has already broken below the support at 78,434, and also broke the bearish flag pattern. Currently, the bearish flag is in play, and Bitcoin’s resistance is at the flag’s upper boundary. When it can regain movement inside the flag and break above the 78,434 resistance, there will be a chance for a second rebound. It can then continue upward toward previous highs and new highs. If it can’t even reclaim the flag pattern, there’s no point in looking higher. Without reclaiming the flag, it will test the support at 77,172. If that support is broken, the hourly bullish trend marked by the red box will be invalidated, and it will naturally retest the lower support at 76,225.
Currently, Bitcoin should be consolidating around 77,172 and the lower boundary of the flag pattern. The consolidation will continue until the US stock market opens, then a new direction will be chosen. Because this decline was driven by volume and price, not just a volume dry-up, and there was no long lower shadow, I believe this decline isn’t over yet. It will only end if it can rebound directly above the 78,434 resistance. Otherwise, what’s the point of a volume-driven drop in a big move like this?
The probability exists but is very small.

Bitcoin with volume breaks above 77,825 and moves higher, chasing longs.
If it breaks below 77,313 with volume and cannot recover, then chase shorts on the rebound—set good stop-losses.
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin breaks and stabilizes above 77,825, aiming for 78,551–79,455.
If it can’t go above 77,825, it’s useless.
On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 77,387, look down to 76,256–74,978.

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin retesting this yellow bullish trend line. This trend line has been tested multiple times—can it hold this time? If it rebounds from this retest, it must make a new high, breaking 79,457 to form a new high. Otherwise, it will fall back to retest the trend line again. No higher high should form before retesting the trend line; otherwise, the trend line will break. Currently, the 4-hour EMA20 has been broken. From a moving average perspective, the support below is the EMA50 at 77,102. Once the EMA50 is broken, the bullish trend line will also break, and support will have to be sought near the EMA200 at around 76,000.
Wait for the US stock market open to see how the market chooses its direction. Trading begins then.
Dismissed.
$BTC