⚠️WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE MARKET AS WE START THE WEEK?

Geopolitical Situation and US-Iran Tensions
• Diplomatic Illusion: The US side is delivering an optimistic "deal imminent" sentiment to keep markets calm and suppress commodity prices; however, military shipments to the region continue in the background.
• Iran’s Hardening Stance: As the influence of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran increases, diplomacy supporters are being suppressed. The lack of concessions from both sides raises the risk of a second phase of war.
• Strait of Hormuz: Although there is slight optimism at the start of the week with news of the Strait reopening, the correlation between asset prices in the markets continues to remain weak.
Global Central Banks and Macro Data Flow
• Critical Week: The US (Fed), Europe (ECB), UK (BoE), Japan (BoJ), and Canada (BoC) central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
• Powell’s Farewell: This meeting is significant as it is the last meeting of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Inflation and Guidance: The hawkish stance that banks will adopt in response to rising inflation risks stemming from Iran, along with forward guidance, will determine market risk appetite.
• Data Intensity: Although important data such as US growth, European CPI, and Chinese PMI will be released, the Iran issue is expected to overshadow these data.
Market Indicators and Pricing
• Global Trend: A neutral trend dominates in stock markets.
SPX500 7,188
NASDAQ 27,444
US 10-year bond yield 4.31%, US Dollar Index 98.27
Gold ounce $4,707
Silver ounce $75.55
Bitcoin $77,677
BIST100 14,566
are trading at these levels.
• Domestic Market: The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish stance due to inflationary risks from the Iran war.
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