U.S. Treasury bonds are about to break through 40 trillion (see picture)

But why do I say the U.S. is unlikely to decline?
The real moat of the United States, the talent pump, is why it’s hard to fall—those who are hoping for America’s collapse will probably keep hoping.
01
In 1945, right after Nazi Germany surrendered, the Americans did one thing—sent people around the world to find German scientists.
This operation was later called the “Pinch Hitter Program,” a pretty boring name, but the actions were quite ruthless: packing over a thousand German rocket experts, physicists, chemists, and transporting them to the U.S., including Wernher von Braun, who later helped the U.S. land on the moon.
At the same time, the Soviet Union was also recruiting people, but not as many as the U.S., and their methods weren’t as “gentle”—the U.S. offered money, housing, and citizenship, while the Soviets simply deported them.
The final result is well known: America’s space program, nuclear weapons program, missile program—much of the brainpower behind these was “harvested” from Europe.
I mention this not to say America is cunning. I want to say that since then, America has understood one thing: the most valuable resource in the world isn’t oil, isn’t gold, it’s people—specifically, those who can create new things.
02,
Core: America’s “talent pump” is the key to its resilience
America has spent eighty years turning itself into a global talent pump. You ask if America will decline? I tell you, as long as this pump keeps running, it’s very hard to decline.
03,
Misconception: What truly constitutes “national decline”?
Many people mention “America’s decline” and cite a bunch of data: how many trillions in national debt, how manufacturing has hollowed out, how infrastructure is as bad as in the third world.
Do these issues exist? Of course, some are quite serious.
But if you think these problems can cause America to “decline,” you might misunderstand the word “decline.” To me, decline means a country’s position in the global economy and technology landscape continuously slipping. Not just a few internal problems, but falling behind and becoming more marginal compared to other nations.
By this standard, America isn’t just not declining; in some dimensions, it’s becoming stronger. In 1990, the U.S. GDP accounted for about a quarter of the world’s total; over thirty years later, that share has remained roughly the same. Even more astonishing, America’s share within the G7 has increased from 40% in 1990 to 58% now—basically, among the old developed countries, the U.S. has pulled further ahead of the other six.
04,
Hidden cards: America’s two trump cards, mutually reinforcing
Why is this happening? The answer isn’t that complicated: America holds two trump cards—one is global talent, the other is the ability to turn talent into money. And these two cards strengthen each other.
(1) First card: The “harvesting machine” of global talent
Let’s talk about talent first. Look at the people doing research in the U.S.—in STEM fields—science, technology, engineering, mathematics—more than 40% of the workforce with PhDs is foreign-born. In the computer field, it’s nearly 60%.
What does this mean? It means that over half of the cutting-edge technological innovation in the U.S. relies on “imported brains.” Every year, the smartest young people worldwide, after finishing their undergraduate studies, choose to pursue graduate degrees in the U.S., and many of them stay to work afterward.
This process has been ongoing for decades, creating an inertia: talent gravitates to places with abundant resources, resources flow to places with abundant talent, the Matthew Effect—“the rich get richer”—grows bigger and bigger.
I know some will say, now the situation is different—Chinese students’ willingness to go to the U.S. has declined, more Chinese scientists are returning home. That’s true, and data shows it.
But you must understand one thing: America isn’t just attracting Chinese. Indians, Europeans, Middle Easterners, Africans—globally, as long as they want to do research, start businesses, or make big money, the U.S. remains the top choice. Chinese students’ willingness has dropped by about ten percent, which sounds significant, but the overall pool is still large, and other sources are filling the gap. This pump isn’t just a single pipe.
(2) Second card: The ability to turn “intelligence” into “wealth”
Now, the second card: transforming talent into money. It sounds simple, but it’s actually very difficult. Talent is everywhere—Europe, Japan, right? Why can’t these places produce Silicon Valley, Tesla, or OpenAI?
It’s not that their scientists are worse—many Nobel laureates are Europeans—but their systems aren’t good at turning “smart” into “money.”
America’s strength lies in having a complete infrastructure for commercializing innovation. If you have a good idea, Silicon Valley has venture capital ready to fund you; if your company takes off, NASDAQ allows you to go public and raise funds; if you fail, bankruptcy laws protect you, allowing a restart.
This system has been running for decades, forming an ecosystem: rocket companies, AI firms, biotech startups—no matter how crazy the ideas, in America, you can always find willing investors.
More importantly, the U.S. has a huge single market—over 400k people, speaking the same language, under the same legal system. Your product can be directly sold to 300 million consumers. This means R&D costs can be spread thin, and scale advantages can crush competitors.
Europe, with roughly the same population, is divided into over twenty countries, with different languages, laws, and consumer habits. Developing a product for multiple markets is prohibitively expensive. Japan’s market is even smaller, relying on exports, but exports mean competing on American turf with American companies. How to compete?
That’s why, even among developed countries, the U.S. can turn technological advantages into commercial and economic advantages, while others can’t. Europe has made many breakthroughs in basic science, but the commercial fruits are often harvested by American companies.
Look at the world’s tech giants—Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, OpenAI—they are all American companies. It’s not that Europeans aren’t smart; it’s that their systems don’t support turning intelligence into such massive commercial success.
05,
Rational perspective: America’s problems don’t affect its core competitiveness
I know some will argue: you praise America, but what about its bad parts? The drug crisis? Gun violence? Wealth gap? Healthcare system? Political polarization?
Yes, these problems exist and some are quite serious. America’s life expectancy has been declining in recent years, ranking near the bottom among developed countries. The opioid epidemic kills tens of thousands annually. Gun violence regularly makes headlines, numbing the public. The two-party system is bitterly divided, and government shutdowns happen frequently.
Are these issues? Of course. Will they drag down America? They will have some impact. But you need to distinguish between two types of “problems.”
One type involves structural issues that could truly shake the foundation—such as stagnating economic growth, drying up of technological innovation, large-scale brain drain.
The other type includes issues that are unpleasant but don’t threaten core competitiveness—like poor social order, crumbling infrastructure, political chaos.
Most of America’s problems fall into the latter category. It might sound cold, but that’s the reality. A country’s “strength” ultimately depends on its ability to create wealth and innovate. As long as that ability remains, other problems can be mitigated with money or at least won’t cause “decline.”
The opioid crisis, with thousands dying each year, is tragic, but most victims are from the lower classes—this doesn’t affect Silicon Valley programmers. Gun violence is terrifying, but it doesn’t impact Wall Street traders. It sounds harsh, but in great power competition, top-tier capabilities matter more than bottom-tier welfare.
And honestly, America’s system, though seemingly chaotic, has a strange self-correcting ability. It’s not relying solely on a strong central government to fix problems but on markets, society, and chaotic negotiations to gradually adjust. This process is slow, inefficient, maddening at times, but surprisingly resilient.
Look at the 1970s—stagflation, oil crises, Vietnam failure—many said America was finished; then the 2008 financial crisis, and again, people said the same. Today, with political polarization and social division, some still say America is doomed. But what happened? It always pulled through, and economic data still manages to surprise.
06,
Clarification: “Decline” is a long process, and America is far from that point
At this point, I want to clarify the word “decline.” Many misunderstand it, thinking that when a country declines, it collapses like a domino. That’s not true.
Historically, great powers like Spain, the Netherlands, and Britain declined over a very long period—so long that the people living through it hardly noticed. Britain was still a world hegemon in 1900, only truly stepping back from the first tier by 1950, after two world wars and the collapse of its empire.
But if you ask a British person in the 1930s “Is Britain declining?” they might think you’re crazy—The British Empire was still vast, the pound was still an international currency, London remained a global financial hub.
Today’s America is nowhere near Britain’s level of decline. The core reasons for Britain’s decline were twofold: the two world wars exhausted its resources, and decolonization dismantled its empire.
America? It hasn’t fought a war that severely damages its foundation, nor does it have colonies to maintain. Its hegemonic base is in technology, finance, and military—these remain the top globally.
07,
Conclusion: America won’t decline in the short term; its core logic is still functioning
So I believe: Will America face problems? Yes. Will it “decline”? Not in the near future, at least not in the foreseeable future. Because the logic supporting it—talent inflow, innovation commercialization, market scale, institutional resilience—is still operating normally.
As long as this logic persists, it can keep recharging itself and self-correcting.
Of course, this logic isn’t unbreakable forever. If America really closes its borders, tightens immigration policies to the extreme, and drives away foreign talent, the talent inflow line will break.
If internal divisions become so severe that decision-making stalls, the government paralyzes, and the rule of law collapses, the institutional resilience line will break.
If America’s education system deteriorates to the point where it can’t produce qualified labor domestically, it will have to rely entirely on foreign talent—an unsustainable situation.
Are these possibilities real? Yes. But I think the probability is low. Despite political polarization, both parties still share consensus on core issues like attracting talent, protecting property rights, and maintaining markets.
Trump’s calls to restrict immigration, but he didn’t dare to really cut H1B visas—why? Because Silicon Valley companies would go crazy; they depend on foreign programmers.
08,
Final note: Face reality—America’s moat still exists
Lastly, a possibly unpopular point. Many in the country like to read “America is doomed” content, with media constantly claiming that America is failing in this or that, about to collapse. I understand this mindset—like watching a villain’s downfall in a drama, it’s satisfying. But consuming too much of this can lead to misjudging the real world.
America has problems, no doubt. But it remains the place on Earth most capable of attracting smart people and turning intelligence into wealth. This position isn’t self-proclaimed; it’s voted with the feet of the world’s brightest.
You may dislike this reality, but you have to acknowledge it.
Returning to the story of the German scientist at the beginning—eighty years later, America is still doing the same thing, just more covertly and on a larger scale. It no longer needs to send people abroad to “grab” talent—young people worldwide buy their own tickets, apply for visas, schools, jobs, and willingly dedicate their best years and brightest minds to that land.
That’s America’s true moat. As long as this river flows, America can’t decline. And when will it dry up? Honestly, I don’t know. Maybe in twenty years, fifty years, or even longer. But one thing’s for sure: those who are always hoping for America’s collapse will probably keep hoping forever.