Seeing others succeed, do you think you can too?


Wake up.
One person's success only proves one thing: it's not impossible. But between "not impossible" and "you are likely to succeed," there is an entire Pacific Ocean.
Statistics give two names to this illusion:
Survivor bias — you only see the person who made it, not the pile of bodies.
Base rate neglect — you've never asked: out of 100 people, how many actually succeed?
Don't be fooled by individual cases. Probability is the real truth.
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