The real black swan is not war, but "playing along until it actually breaks out"

The most dangerous point in the current situation is not the conflict itself, but—
misjudgment.
Iran is sending strong signals, the United States is strengthening deployments, both sides are "showing muscles."
The problem is:
When both sides are acting, it's easy to overdo it.
Many conflicts in history happened like this:
It was originally just deterrence, but ended up escalating.
Once misjudgment occurs:
✔ The pace of conflict will suddenly accelerate
✔ Market reactions will lag behind
✔ Risk assets will be quickly revalued
This is the real point to be vigilant about. #加密市场行情震荡