Ultimate judgment: There will not be a full-scale war, but the market will be repeatedly "shocked higher"

If you have to give a conclusion, it is:
✔ Ceasefire is highly unlikely to completely break down
✔ Short-term disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz increase
✔ The probability of a full blockade is low
Iran and the United States both understand that the true cost of war is too high.
But that doesn't mean the market will be calm.
On the contrary, the market will enter a state:
Constantly driven by news, with sharp fluctuations up and down.
Oil prices will be like a roller coaster:
Rising due to conflicts at one moment, falling due to easing at another.
Where is the real opportunity?
In the rhythm, not the direction.
The conclusion is simple:
This is not a "bet on war" market,
But a "bet on sentiment" market. #美伊谈判陷入僵局