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$BTC Midweek Update:
Currently, we have completely broken out of the 66-day range of (63K - 72K).
In the context of a bear market, short-term BTC is likely to see some relief.
Looking at the yellow box in the chart, since BTC's rapid crash in January 2026, BTC has now reached the Fibonacci 0.5 level (79K).
BTC is still within the current supply zone, which is very critical.
There are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Break through the yellow range at 0.5 (79K), and after stabilizing, BTC's target is 93K - 98K.
If Scenario 1 plays out, then altcoins will experience a significant surge.
Scenario 2: Encounter resistance at the yellow zone at 0.5 (79K), with the first support at 75K below, and the second at 72K.
Based on recent contract market data, BTC's funding rates have been consistently highly negative. BTC is likely to move upward again for a period.
This week's theme: Market Reversal
BTC Weekly Chart Analysis:
Last week broke through the Range High (71,200), successfully closing above it.
69K - 71K shifted from the Supply ( supply zone ) to the Demand ( demand zone ).
Scenario 1: If BTC closes above 79.5K, which is above the 0.5 level of the 60K - 98K Fibonacci retracement, then BTC will experience rapid expansion.
Scenario 2: If BTC closes back below the Range High (71,200), then at minimum, BTC will retest important liquidity levels below that have not been tested yet (62K, 60K).
ETH Weekly Chart Analysis:
ETH remains relatively strong compared to BTC, as seen from the ETH/BTC trading pair.
2.1K - 2.2K shifted from the Supply ( supply zone ) to the Demand ( demand zone ).
Scenario 1: If ETH closes above 2.57K, ETH will undergo rapid expansion.
Scenario 2: If ETH closes back below the Range High (2.1K), then at minimum, BTC will retest important liquidity levels below that have not been tested yet (1.79K, 1.74K).
ETH/BTC Weekly Chart Analysis:
The ETH/BTC pair has two significant implications:
1. The relative strength or weakness of ETH compared to BTC.
2. If ETH is strong relative to BTC, then altcoins other than ETH are very likely to experience a wave of expansion. Conversely, if ETH is weak, the same applies in reverse.
Last week, the weekly close was above the ETH/BTC consolidation zone Range High, indicating ETH remains strong against BTC. We need to continuously monitor this momentum.