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Interest rates "hold steady"? The market has almost reached a consensus
According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the current market consensus on the interest rate path is very consistent:
April: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is as high as 99%, with only a 1% chance of rate hikes
By June: The probability of remaining unchanged is about 96.4%, with only a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and about a 1% chance of a rate hike
This means that the market has essentially ruled out the possibility of significant policy changes in the short term, entering a "wait-and-see window."
Logically, when interest rate expectations are stable, the focus of funds shifts from macro policies to the assets themselves, such as profitability, liquidity, and changes in risk appetite.
Simply put: it's not that there are no opportunities, but that "fewer variables are deciding the trend."
In financial markets, the real challenge is not predicting changes, but maintaining patience during periods of "no change."
When most people start to feel bored, the next wave of volatility is often brewing. True opportunities often arise before calmness.