90% of traders get drowned, all dying from "carving a boat to seek a sword"

The biggest misconception in the crypto world: applying macro cycles using micro noise.

Many study cycles and review history, seeming to delve deeply, but actually digging their own graves.
The essence is failing to distinguish: what are rigid laws, and what are random fluctuations.

What can be "recreated" is the fundamental way

The I Ching, Kondratiev waves, and dynastic cycles are effective for thousands of years because they focus on two things:

1. Energy causality: the irreversible laws of old energy fading and new order replacing it
2. Human nature cycle: greed, fear, and fanaticism that have never changed in a thousand years

BTC's halving mechanism is the "heavenly solar terms" of the crypto market, a top macro anchor point.

Three rigid laws that must be strictly adhered to:

✅ Cycle solar terms: the mismatch of supply and demand during halving is the underlying logic of bull and bear rotations
✅ Emotional extremes: extreme panic and euphoria are innate biological instincts that never change
✅ Chip consensus: dense trading zones are the true psychological bottom line of the market

Three major traps that must be avoided at all costs:

❌ Obsessing over historical prices: each cycle involves completely different capital, mechanisms, and scale
❌ Fixed timing points: liquidity and policies can stretch or compress cycle rhythms
❌ Superstitious reliance on outdated indicators: environmental iteration makes old models misleading

Top-level cognition: from "carving a boat" to "watching the water"

Ordinary people focus on fixed numbers, points, and times
Experts observe the flow logic, potential energy, and cycles

History does not repeat in detail, but it always repeats the logic.

When market trends deviate from history, anger is the retail investor’s obsession, curiosity is the iteration of the strong.
Follow the trend and observe the water, rather than rigidly carving the boat—that is the highest form of trading discipline.
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