April 21 Evening Bitcoin Analysis

✅ Rebound shorts are the main focus: Short below 76,300-76,500 with resistance, target 75,800/75,500, stop loss above 76,800.
✅ Support is secondary: Buy on dip at 75,300-75,500, target 76,300/76,500, stop loss below 75,000.
4-hour cycle
• Bollinger Bands: Current upper band 76,808, middle band 75,537, lower band 74,266, clearly narrowing. The previous unilateral rally has ended, Bollinger Bands shift from expansion to contraction, indicating mid-term bullish momentum is exhausted, entering a high-level consolidation window.
• MACD: DIF=273, DEA=212, green bars significantly shortened, still above zero line, but bullish momentum is rapidly waning, indicating a "dying embers" of the bulls, with a potential death cross turning bearish at any time.
• RSI/KDJ: RSI=56.8, in a neutral to slightly strong zone, no overbought; KDJ K-line=76, has fallen from high levels, showing bullish momentum is retreating.
✅ Core conclusion: 4-hour trend shifts from strong to weak, entering a high-level consolidation phase, Bollinger Bands narrowing + momentum fading, not supporting a unilateral rally, with downside risk building.
1-hour cycle
• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 76,628, middle band 76,042, lower band 75,456, overall Bollinger Bands are flat and narrowing, price is under pressure near the middle band, short-term upward trend has stalled.
• MACD: DIF=221.8, DEA=235.1, a death cross has formed, red bars beginning to diminish, short-term has entered a correction cycle dominated by bears.
✅ Core conclusion: 1-hour death cross confirmed, wave correction trend has started, Bollinger Bands flattening indicates upward momentum is interrupted, target is to test the lower band of Bollinger.
15-minute cycle
Bollinger Bands: Upper band 76,789, middle band 76,233, lower band 75,677, in an expanding opening state, price is below the middle band, short-term in a weak downward channel, bearish momentum is releasing.
• MACD: DIF=-0.5, DEA=-7.3, below zero death cross, although red bars slightly shortened, still below zero line, indicating short-term bearish trend has not reversed, rebound is just a weak correction.
• RSI/KDJ: RSI=55, neutral to slightly lower; KDJ K-line=60, rebounded from lows but has not formed a golden cross, short-term rebound lacks strength.
✅ Core conclusion: 15-minute bearish trend dominates, Bollinger Bands opening downward, price weakening along the lower band, rebounds are opportunities to short.
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