The biggest news tonight is that the US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22, and the outlook for the next round of talks remains unclear. Iran has declared: because the United States violated the ceasefire agreement, as long as the maritime blockade is not lifted, Iran will not return to the negotiating table.

The collapse of the first round of US-Iran talks is perfectly normal—this is just a stage of trading harsh words. Don’t be fooled by how loudly both sides are arguing; in reality, they’re all stockpiling leverage for the second round of negotiations. The likelihood of the US-Iran war continuing to escalate is now getting lower and lower.

Whether it’s the United States or Iran, continuing the war brings no good to anyone. For the US, soaring military spending + high inflation will inflame public anger, and Trump’s approval ratings will also keep sliding downward. For Iran, if the economic blockade continues, collapse is not far off.

Right now, the only one that doesn’t want a ceasefire is Israel. Israel wants, with the help of the United States, to completely bring down Iran and install itself as the Middle East’s top power. But to be honest, even the United States, trying to completely defeat Iran, is almost impossible.

In modern warfare, when countries fight each other, humanitarian concerns come first—civilian targets can’t be attacked casually, or you become the enemy of the world. So if the US truly wants to bring down a country, it doesn’t rely on fighting; it relies on economic blockades.

So to put it another way: next, the probability of the US-Iran war continuing to escalate is not high. The most likely outcome is extending the ceasefire until it eventually becomes completely final, with various small frictions in between.

Next, think it through and take good advantage of the market. If you recognize Ayu’s analysis, leave a comment in the comment section 🔥🔥🔥
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