Geopolitical détente + a data-heavy week: Over the past week, the market has entered a critical standoff window. Expectations that the US-Iran conflict will be eased through negotiations have continued to strengthen. On Friday, as Iran’s foreign minister signaled openness regarding the Strait of Hormuz, sentiment for risk assets clearly rebounded. At present, the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire soon, and developments in the Middle East remain one of the core variables driving market volatility. Meanwhile, in the coming week, the market will move into a dense “data + policy expectations” window: the nomination hearing for Federal Reserve Chair candidate Waller, the latest US retail sales data, and the preliminary Europe and the US April manufacturing PMI figures—these data will directly affect the market’s assessment of economic resilience and the path of monetary policy.