The following content is solely personal opinion and not investment advice.

Today, an overview of BTC's overall trend and current movement.

1. Bull and bear pattern judgment

Figure 1 uses the low point of 15,400 and the high point of 126,000 as benchmarks. The boxed area in the figure can be seen as the boundary between bull and bear markets—if three consecutive weekly candlesticks close above this area, it can preliminarily indicate the end of the bear market.

Personal opinion: The probability that the February 2026 low of 60k will become the bottom of the bear market is low; the current trend starting from 60k points is more inclined to be a rebound rally.

2. Current structural projection

In Figure 2, the red and blue boxes are drawn using the high points of 126,000 and 97,900, and the low point of 60k, forming two key resistance zones where the blue and red boxes intersect.

If the rebound level does not expand further, a strong decline must occur by this week at the latest next week. The market allows for new highs (breaking 76,000), but after reaching new highs, a quick pullback is needed, rather than the current sideways consolidation at high levels.

3. Two hypothetical paths

If the sideways consolidation at high levels continues: it may evolve into the red path in Figure 2, meaning the recent decline is only a level-to-level correction within 65,000–76,000, and after that, there could still be another level-level rally to test the red resistance zone. If it fails to break through, a larger decline will then begin.

If it drops rapidly: the current area may already have formed the end of the rebound structure.

Key observation: The rhythm and strength of the next 1-2 weeks will determine whether the rebound continues or if it directly transitions into a downtrend.