4.13 Gold Brief Review

I. Geopolitical events spark the market, gold prices gap down and plunge

The marathon-style peace talks between the US and Iran have been declared a failure, and the US announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, directly hitting global markets. Spot gold opened sharply lower in the morning with a large gap down; the decline nearly 2% for the day. It fell from last weekend’s close of 4749 to an opening price of 4670, and the gap was 79 points. During the session, it dipped to a low of 4645, and then saw weak consolidation in the 4650-4660 range, with bearish sentiment firmly dominating the board.

Driven by linkage from this geopolitical event, international oil prices surged sharply, with WTI crude up more than 10% and staying above 105 dollars per barrel. Safe-haven funds poured into the US dollar in large amounts, pushing the US dollar index higher strongly. Non-US currencies such as the euro and the pound all weakened collectively. The euro fell 0.53% to 1.1663 versus the US dollar, and the pound’s decline versus the US dollar reached 0.5%. Risk appetite in financial markets shifted rapidly.

II. Core logic: the pricing mainline switches, the safe-haven attribute becomes ineffective on a phased basis

This time, gold prices plunged sharply against the trend under geopolitical risk. This is not that the safe-haven logic has failed, but that the market’s pricing mainline has completed a full switch—from being driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand to being dominated by inflation and rate-hike expectations.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz directly disrupts the global energy supply chain. Oil prices soaring again triggers renewed fears of inflation, and coupled with the US March inflation rate reaching the largest increase in nearly four years, market expectations for global central banks’ monetary policy shifted abruptly. Previously, the market largely priced in expectations of central bank rate cuts; but under high inflation pressure, rate-hike expectations for major central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England warmed up quickly. The appeal of gold, which has no yield, was greatly weakened, the US dollar became the preferred destination for safe-haven funds, and this in turn suppressed gold price performance.

III. Technical outlook: bearish structure resonates, downtrend confirmed

From a technical perspective, at the daily chart level, gold printed a long-bodied bearish candle. The moving average system is arranged in a bearish alignment. The MACD indicator’s two lines diverge downward, and the stochastic indicator forms a death cross. The macro fundamentals and the technical price action form a bearish resonance, clearly establishing a bearish control pattern.

Gold rebounded from the low of 4645 to 4717 and touched the key strong resistance zone of 4700-4717. This range corresponds to last Friday’s closing price and the upper edge of the gap, where the pressure effect is significant. The short-term rebound is only technical repair after the selloff and does not change the overall bearish structure. Downside risks remain prominent.

IV. Outlook on the trend

At present, gold is under dual pressure from both inflation and rate-hike expectations and technical factors. The room for a short-term rebound is limited. If it cannot effectively recapture the gap and stand firm above key resistance levels, the bears will exert further force, and prices will probe the support of the prior lows. In terms of trading, you need to follow the bearish trend

It is recommended to position short in the 4737-4765 range, with targets at 4700-4650-4620
Be alert to blindly chasing a bottom, and watch for opportunities to go with the trend after resistance levels come under pressure.

#Gate上线Pre-IPOs