Shouchuang Futures: Supply Further Decreases, Ethylene Glycol Futures Price Hits Nearly Four-Year High

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-12T13:25:36+00:00

The East China ethylene glycol price has risen to 5,097 yuan/ton, with the basis strengthening. The escalation of geopolitical tensions and maintenance of domestic and international facilities have led to tight supply. It is expected that 550k tons will be destocked, and futures prices will remain strong. Attention should be paid to changes in operating rates and costs.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-12 13:25:36

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Spot market, East China ethylene glycol price is 5,097 RMB/ton self-pickup, up 297 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. The spot basis continues to strengthen.
On the supply side, geopolitical tensions have further escalated, with the expected prolongation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, increasing market concerns over raw material supply disruptions. Currently, the operating rates of domestic ethylene cracking plants producing ethylene glycol have been broadly reduced, with an estimated loss of over 1,000 tons per day in ethylene glycol output. Additionally, several coal-based ethylene glycol units are scheduled for shutdown or reduced capacity in March.
Overseas, some Iranian units have shut down or suspended exports, while Saudi units maintain low operating rates. It is expected that ethylene glycol imports in March will significantly decline.
On the demand side, downstream polyester capacity and terminal weaving operations are gradually recovering. It is estimated that from March to May, ethylene glycol will be de-stocked by a total of 550k tons.
In summary, escalating geopolitical tensions, increased maintenance at domestic and international facilities, tightening supply, and rising export expectations are expected to lead to continued destocking from March to May. Ethylene glycol futures are expected to remain strong, with a long position in ethylene glycol and cross-commodity arbitrage with PTA. Attention should be paid to changes in plant operating rates and cost fluctuations domestically and abroad. (First Capital Futures)

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