Cardano is at an interesting point right now. The price has dropped to $0.24, but there are some technical signals catching the attention of wave followers.

I noticed that on-chain data shows something curious: those who bought ADA in the last year are experiencing an average loss of 43%. Seems bad, right? But historically, when holders are at this level of devaluation, it often signals that the worst has already passed. The 365-day MVRV metric has fallen to -43%, and according to Santiment, this places Cardano in a "buy zone" — precisely the range that in 2023 and late 2024 preceded significant recoveries.

What makes this more interesting is that the derivatives market positioning is also extreme. ADA funding rates have hit their most negative level since June 2023, meaning short sellers are highly concentrated. When both of these signals align like this, the historical implication is clear: selling pressure diminishes, and any positive movement could trigger a short squeeze.

The last time this happened was in mid-2023, when ADA was around $0.25, and then it appreciated about 300% over the following 18 months.

Of course, there are no guarantees. The broader market faces real macroeconomic challenges, and the Cardano ecosystem has yet to show growth in usage that justifies a fundamental leap. But the current positioning — with holders heavily in loss and short positions at a maximum of three years — is exactly the kind of scenario where the next move tends to surprise most traders.